Forex Flash: China PMI Manufacturing upcoming – Wells

Forex Flash: China PMI Manufacturing upcoming â€" Wells

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Forex Flash: China PMI Manufacturing upcoming Wells

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The week starts a bit earlier this time, with China releasing its manufacturing PMI for June on Saturday, June 30, in what will probably set the stage for the mood of financial markets on Monday, according to Wells Fargo.

Markets expect the PMI to drop below the all-important 50 level to 49.9 from a 50.4 reading in May. The release on Saturday will be followed by the HSBC manufacturing PMI on Sunday.

“The expectation is for both service PMIs to remain above the 50 mark, but for the manufacturing PMI to reflect the slowdown in economic activity in China during the last several months,” says Wells Fargo. “Markets already know the Chinese economy is slowing down, so a number below 50 will probably not move the markets.”

Forex Flash: EUR/USD outlook still points to 1.12

Forex Flash: EUR/USD outlook still points to 1.12

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Forex Flash: EUR/USD outlook still points to 1.12 - TD

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - EUR/USD last trades at 1.2655 ahead of the closing bell in New York vs. 1.2441 late Thursday, poised to record a 1.7% gain on the day and a 0.8% gain for the week.

From TD Securities: “Weekly candle patterns do look a bit more EUR-positive â€" a bullish piercing line” â€" but the weekly doji from mid-June and last week’s bearish “engulfing line” still constitute important negative signals for price. Above 1.2747, EUR/USD may trade back towards the top of the broad, bear channel at 1.2933. Bigger picture, patterns (long-term HS bear reversal) still point to 1.12 eventually (12-18 months out).”

Forex Flash: We see US GDP growth between 1.8%-2.2%

Forex Flash: We see US GDP growth between 1.8%-2.2%

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Forex Flash: We see US GDP growth between 1.8%-2.2% - BMO

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - U.S. economic momentum is waning, due to technical reasons, but mostly due to fundamentals, says BMO Capital Markets, citing headwinds from the euro crisis and U.S. “fiscal cliff” fears.

“We look for quarterly real GDP growth to drift sideways in a slightly sub-par 1.8%-to-2.2% range for the rest of this year,” Says BMO. “Next year, we’re assuming about half of the more than $500 billion in fiscal measures slated to hit the economy will be allowed to happen (after probably being postponed until the new Congress is in place). This should slice 2013 Q1 growth to barely above 1% before finally rebounding to above potential growth during 2013 H2.”

ECB likely to leave it unchanged at 1.00%

ECB likely to leave it unchanged at 1.00%

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ECB likely to leave it unchanged at 1.00% - UBS

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Next week will be crucial for the sentiment in the market, Central banks across the world will hold policy meeting to decide if they change its interest rates. The ECB will hold it on July 5th and consensus is the bank to hold rates.

"Policymakers return to the fore however with the ECB, BoE, RBA and Riksbank set to meet. Payrolls data in the US is due as well," say Chris Walker and Eamon Aghdasi from UBS.

The ECB "is likely to leave it unchanged at 1.00% against a consensus view of a 25 bp cut," UBS comments. "We do not see much marginal benefit from cutting the refi rate at this stage, though the deterioration in core data may prompt a response."

U.S. stocks close first half of 2012 up 5%

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U.S. stocks close first half of 2012 up 5%

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Stocks on Wall Street exploded higher Friday on the back of positive developments out of the EU leaders' summit in Brussels, where officials announced a new bank recapitalization plan that ignited the global markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 278 points, or 2.2%, to 12,880, having gained 3.9% in June, but still records a 2.5% loss this quarter. The SP 500 Index gained 33 points, or 2.5%, to 1,362, up 4% this month, but still recording a 3.3% loss for the quarter. The Nasdaq added 86 points, or 3% to 2,935, managing to record its best day of the year. All three indexes closed out the first half of 2012 up more than 5%.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook June 29, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook June 29, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/USD has been a bit wild lately, as traders try to figure out what's going to come out of the European Union meetings. If history is any guide, it will be much in the markets will be disappointed in the politicians yet again. However, I do find it interesting that the market hasn't bought of the Euro with any great gusto the front run the announcement this time. I think that perhaps the markets are finally starting lose their patience with the children the run the EU.

Many years ago, Pres. Bill Clinton found out the hard way that the bond markets control a lot of what a government can and cannot do. He is even quoted is asking the question, "Do I really have to listen to what a bunch of bond traders think?" He found out rapidly that the answer of course was yes. This was the beginning of the United States cleaning up its balance sheet. Believe it or not, there was a point in time when the US wasn't in debt.

With this being said, we could be approaching this time for the European Union. This is the 19th meeting that we have seen out of the EU in order to fix this crisis. At this point in time, the drama has become far beyond absurd. With this in mind, it's very likely that we will continue to see Euro weaken over time.

Bearish flag at 1.25

The bearish flag on the chart is still very much intact, and still very much looks like a signal to sell this market. If you measure the bullish flag, we are heading to the 1.15 level albeit over time, not tomorrow. For me, this makes sense as this would suggest a longer-term decline of the Euro in general.

A decline would make sense, as the European Union will continue to struggle with debt and stagnation. This doesn't necessarily mean that we need some kind of worldwide depression the trigger this move. In fact, many of the traders that write me and question why I'm so bearish on the Euro are surprised to find that the actual opening value of this pair was 1.18 just over a decade ago. In fact, the true fair value is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.21 over time. So to suggest a 1.15 handle really isn't that outrageous if you think of it.

I am still short this pair, and will be unless we see a break above the bottom of a bearish flag. I would sell all rallies, and will become aggressively short once we are south of the 1.23 level. I have absolutely no plans of buying the Euro at this point in time.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 29, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 29, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The Australian dollar had a pretty wild day during the Thursday session. This makes sense, as a lot of people are trying to figure out which direction the worldwide economy is going. With so many conflicting signals, although a majority of them are negative, it makes sense of the Australian dollar will suffer. After all, it is one of the favored currencies by the Forex market to express risk appetite.

Because of this, this pair should remain volatile for the foreseeable future. In fact, I haven't been trading it is much as I used to. Currently we have a situation that every headline is moving the market dramatically. A perfect example of that is the Thursday candle. You can see the range was fairly wide for the session, and at the end of the day not much was decided.

Parity holds

During the Thursday session, we did see an attempt to break down below the parity level. However, at the end of the day it held as support, and is even backed up by the Monday hammer as well. With this in mind, it is going to be difficult to break this pair down. However, the worldwide situation does not favor a lot of "risk on" trading. With this being said, I suspect this pair is going to be very choppy and very short-term driven.

Obviously, a breakdown of the lows from the Monday hammer would be a strong sell signal on this pair, but I would wait until after a daily close in order to take that trade. As you can see on the Thursday candle, there was a point in time during the day that it looked like this pair was going to skyrocket, and then another point in the day that liquidity was going to fall apart. A daily close, although not 100% accurate, will protect you in the sense that it shows a sense of finality.

This pair could be rather dangerous to trade in the short term, but I believe that the 1.02 level to the upside is the obvious buy signal that we want to see if you're going to go long. The breakdown and closing below Monday's hammer would be a pretty strong sell signal as well. It is because of the recent volatility that I am waiting for one of these levels to be broken on a daily close in order to get involved at all. Sometimes, you are paid to wait and this may be one of those situations.

CAD/JPY Daily Outlook June 29, 2012

CAD/JPY Daily Outlook June 29, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

CAD/JPY fell during the session on Thursday as the oil markets gave way. As many of you know, the Canadian dollar is driven mainly by the crude oil markets, but many of you won't know that the Japanese import 100% of their oil. It is because of this that the CAD/JPY pair is highly sensitive to movements in the oil markets. In fact, it's one of my favorite ways to play the oil market using currencies.

It appears that the pair is attempting to continue the long-term downtrend that we've seen for at least the last four months. This makes sense, as the oil markets have been coming unglued since about the same amount of time. The Japanese currency is getting stronger in general anyways, and adding to that the fact that oil is coming undone, this pair really has only one direction to go ultimately.

With this being said, I look at this pair as a "sell only" market. The next question is going to be whether or not we bounce from here and continue the consolidation of two the top of this rectangle, or do we break down?

Rectangle

The candle for the session on Thursday looks rather weak, and does suggest further selling. However, I want to see a breakdown in a move below the Thursday lows in order to start selling. Obviously, a bounce is possible from here, but it will run into serious resistance at the 78.50 level. I won't buy this market, so if it bounces I will simply wait till we get close to that area in order to start selling again on the first sign of weakness.

As for breakdown, on a break of the Thursday lows I believe that this market will plummet to the 74.50 level or so before running into any serious support. Quite frankly, this is the move I'm hoping for as it is the most profitable one. If we can manage to get a close on the daily chart above the 78.50 level, I would consider buying this pair on that move. Until then, I'm selling this pair using the above listed parameters.

EUR/USD Signal- June 29, 2012

EUR/USD Signal- June 29, 2012

Fadi Steitie

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EUR/NOK extends its downside

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EUR/NOK extends its downside

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Norwegian krone is advancing against the single currency on Friday, dragging the cross along the bigger bearish trend after retail sales in Norway have climbed 1.7% during May, well above April’s contraction of 0.2%.

Higher crude oil prices prices are bolstering NOK today as well, rising 1.77% just below the $80.00/bbl mark.

At the moment the pair is losing 0.15% at 7.5352, with the immediate support lying at 7.5185 (MA14d) followed by 7.4870 (low Jun.20) and 7.4700 (Lower Bollinger).
On the other hand, a break above 7.6225 (Upper Bollinger) would open the door to 7.6510 (high Jun.70 and then 7.6628 (high May 16).

EUR/GBP in its highs after the BoE

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EUR/GBP in its highs after the BoE

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The overnight rally was capped at 80.87 spike high and the EUR/GBP later dropped down to the 200-hourly moving average at 0.8035 where it was held during the London opening.

Despite the Euro sideways trading in recent hours, the EUR/GBP has rallied back to near the highs on account of the weakening British Pound after BoE’s King Speech and the Financial Stability Report in the UK stating deteriorating data and the need of temporary raise of bank capital levels. At the moment of writing, the pair trades at 0.8070.

While withholding a negative bias, Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones wrote: “The market has immediate resistance at 0.8077 (55 day ma) but will remain offered below the 0.8162 resistance, this is the 38.2% retracement of the move seen this year”.

BoE’s M.King says UK banks still face headwinds

BoE’s M.King says UK banks still face headwinds

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EUR/USD stuck in the 1.2575 region

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EUR/USD stuck in the 1.2575 region

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is trading around the 1.2575 on Friday, up more than 1% and one big figure after the positive announcements at the EU Summit.
Mixed bag of results in the euro zone has not dented today’s EUR performance, as German retail sales have contracted 1.1% during May, France GDP growth was flat during the first quarter and the flash inflation figures in the euro bloc rose 2.4%, matching forecasts.

Ahead in the day PCE, Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are due across the pond.

EUR/USD is now advancing 1.10% at 1.2584 with the next resistance at 1.2698 (Upper Bollinger) followed by 1.2708 (high Jun.21) then 1.2744 and 1.2748 (high Jun.18).
On the downside, a dip below 1.2556 (MA10d) would bring 1.2543 (MA21d) then 1.2432 (hourly low Jun.29) and 1.2393 (Lower Bollinger).

Forex Flash: US fiscal crisis more distressing in some ways – Merrill Lynch

Forex Flash: US fiscal crisis more distressing in some ways â€" Merrill Lynch

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Forex Flash: US fiscal crisis more distressing in some ways Merrill Lynch

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Although the Eurozone fiscal crisis is the most infamous and complex as its decision process requires 17 countries, each with multiple political parties, Merrill Lynch analysts see the political contrast (two major parties) and relatively low market pressure in the US and find a better environment to solve its problems.

Unlike the crisis in the EMU, the US doesn’t need to rewrite its Constitution, but only real bipartisan cooperation: “There is a road map for fiscal consolidation: the Simpson Bowles plan, with all parts of the budget in the table and with austerity linked to the health of the economy. And, there is a very recent historic example: the bipartisan fiscal consolidation over the 1983-2000 period”, wrote analyst Ethan S. Harris.

Euro Surge on News of Banking Overseer

Euro Surge on News of Banking Overseer

By: DailyForex.com

The Euro is poised to have its largest 1-day rise in nearly eight months as E.U. leaders are expected to announce later today that they have agreed to create a common supervisory body which will oversee the Eurozone’s banks and permit them to recapitalize directly via the EFSF and not through governmental channels. The goal said Herman Van Rompuy, the E.C. Chairman, was the creation of a mechanism which would break the sometimes vicious circle between the Eurozone’s sovereign governments and their respective banks.

One analyst said that that was well beyond what markets had been expecting, and might be just enough to whet risk appetite in the financial markets. Players may still consider exercising caution until after the announcement makes the plan official; as one currency strategist put it there have been several instances when leaders who supposedly were in accord came out of a meeting to only tell of disagreements.

As reported at 11:18 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD surged 1.2% to trade at $1.2588, well off the $1.2407 low struck yesterday. The Euro also surged against the Yen, trading 1.2% higher to 99.97 Yen, again off the low of 98.37 Yen of yesterday. The Yen is finding support against the greenback, however, as Japanese exporters sold off U.S. Dollar holdings ahead of the quarter-end.

Barclays In Banking Scandal

Barclays In Banking Scandal

By: DailyForex.com

Barclays Bank has been fined £290 million for attempting to manipulate key banking interest rates. Libor and Euribor (the London Interbank Offered Rate and the Euro Interbank Offered Rate), as the names imply, are the rates at which (leading) banks are willing to supply money to one another: it is the base value upon which further loans are granted are marked up upon. In essence, Libor and Euribor are the minimum costs at which money could be borrowed from a financial institution â€" as a borrower you hope to get a loan as close to the Libor or Euribor rates as possible. Interest rates are set on a daily basis by the British Banker’s Association (in the case of Libor) and remain in force for periods from one day to one year dependent on deal conditions. These rates influence the interest rates applied to trillions of dollars worth of financial transactions.

The suggestion is that staff involved in derivatives trading urged colleagues who dealt with setting Libor to alter the rate so as to favour their positions and increase bank profits. Libor is essentially a weighted average value for interest rates charged by the big banks on a daily basis, so it is possible that a single value can alter the rate and clearly open to bias were there to be a cartel at work. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) which levied the fine noted that between 2007 and 2009 when the financial crisis was at its worst, Barclays staff under reported the interest rate to foster the idea that the bank was not under financial stress and therefore having to borrow money at more costly rates than its competitors.

This is exactly the type of major financial scandal that the banking sector could do without at the moment and will only add fuel to the argument that the global financial crisis was triggered by a financial sector that had become a law unto itself in far too many aspects. Barclays admitted misconduct in a related American affair and paid $160 million in fines. By settling with FSA early, the bank was able to benefit from a 30% reduction in the fine imposed.

EU summit breakthrough: Banks can be recapped directly through bailout funds

EU summit breakthrough: Banks can be recapped directly through bailout funds

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Euro broadly bid after EU summit news

Euro broadly bid after EU summit news

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Forex Flash: After EU summit juicy news, EUR/USD should be higher

Forex Flash: After EU summit juicy news, EUR/USD should be higher

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Forex Flash: After EU summit juicy news, EUR/USD should be higher - Westpac

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EU had some good news to deliver in the form of permission by EU leaders to use the bailout funds EFSF and ESM to be tapped by Spain and Italy in order to hel recap their struggling banks.

"This is a clear backdown by Germany despite Angela Merkel now publicly welcoming the decision. What has yet to be specified is what conditions will apply â€" surely Spain can’t just tap the fund at will?! There was also agreement that ESM loans to Spain to shore up its banks won’t have senior status, which should help ease fears of potential investors in Spanish govt bonds" explains Sean Callow, currency strategist at Westpac.

The EC will also make a proposal for a single bank supervisor, with substantial ECB involvement although only under “very strict conditions”, according to Barroso and Van Rompuy, which as seen by Mr. Callow, "is another important positive", who adds that despite not being the 'big bazooka', "EUR/USD should indeed be hig her, though the scale of the bounce, from 1.2450 to as high as 1.2628, has obviously been accelerated by the huge overhang of EUR shorts and dismally low expectations for the summit."

AUD/USD rallies with risk sentiment

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AUD/USD rallies with risk sentiment

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Australian dollar has rallied to fresh 6-day highs along with Asian equities on a strong bout of risk tolerance after European Union leaders announced plans for a single financial supervisor and other measures to shore up the markets there.

AUD/USD turned from operating in consolidation mode to shoot sharply higher Friday, reaching as high as 1.0170 from an earlier session low of 1.0018, last at 1.0145 vs. 1.0043, up 1% on the day. Resistance is noted at 1.0222 (20 June high), with support at 1.0123 (intraday).

EUR/GBP rallies after EU bank plan

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EUR/GBP rallies after EU bank plan

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The EUR/GBP pair has jumped during Friday’s Asian session after European leaders unveiled a plan to address the region’s distressed banking sector.

The gains came after the pairing hit a four-week low on Tuesday, weighed by jitters ahead of a two-day European leaders’ summit.

European Commission President Herman van Rompuy and other EU leaders announced a plan for a single financial supervisor for the region, which will involve the European Central Bank with the possibility of direct recapitalization for European banks.

EUR/GBP traded as high as 0.8085 before pulling back to current levels in the 0.8060 area, up from 0.8016 at the end of trading in New York.

In the European session ahead, key risk even for GBP will be BoE Governor King’s speech at 09:30 GMT, when markets will be looking for hints of further easing ahead of the MPC’s monetary policy announcement next Thursday.

Successful Trades on June 28, 2012

Successful Trades on June 28, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

AUD/USD

According to Christopher Lewis's analysis of the AUD/USD, This pair will continue to stay bullish .That creates an investment opportunity on the following instruments: “High”, “No Touch Down” and “Touch”.

I logged in the optionFair™ Binary Options Trading Platform and traded $1,000 on the “Touch” instrument. This kind of option has a return of 70% if the option hits the strike price prior to expiry, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $700 on my investment.

The market price for AUD/ USD at the buying time (12:09) was 1.00761 and the target price was 1.00821for the expiration of 12:30. The pair touched the strike price at 12:18 and I earned $700 in just 9 minutes!

EUR/USD

Based on Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the EUR/USD “This pair has broken a bearish flag and looks set to continue falling“. That’s creates an investment opportunity in the following instruments: “Low”, “Touch Down “and “No Touch”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,000 on the "Low" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 85% if the option closes below the target price, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $850 on my investment.

The target price for EUR/USD at the buying time (12:19) was 1.24367 for the expiration of 12:30. Even that the market move to the right direction, I have chosen to close the position prior the expiration. The market price was 1.24316 and I won $327 in 3 minutes.

GBP/USD extends decline, tests 1.5500

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GBP/USD extends decline, tests 1.5500

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The cable extended losses against the dollar as risk aversion intensified following the Wall Street opening, with GBP/USD breaking below intraday lows and falling toward the 1.5500 mark.

After dropping through the 1.5525 zone, the sterling accelerated to the downside, hitting its lowest level in nearly 2 weeks at 1.5500, where some buyers helped to contain the slide. At time of writing, the cross is trading barely above recent lows, recording a 0.4% decline on the day.

From a technical view, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, notes that 4 hours chart shows an increasing bearish momentum, with indicators moving away from their midlines, "while 20 SMA slowly gains bearish slope above current price".

Below the 1.5505/00 zone, Bednarik locates immediate supports at 1.5470 and 1.5440, while she places resistances at 1.5520, 1.5550 and 1.5590.

Forex Flash: Markets to remain choppy as European summit unfolds

Forex Flash: Markets to remain choppy as European summit unfolds

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Forex Flash: Markets to remain choppy as European summit unfolds - Wells Fargo

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US dollar is broadly stronger this morning as European leaders reconvene in another attempt to bridge the growing rift within the Eurozone about how to address the region's debt crisis, comments the Wells Fargo team.

"Markets are expecting little in the way of significant progress, although Chancellor Merkel indicated that a growth package is in the works with details to follow shortly. A plan for the European Stability Mechanism to buy government bonds of embattled countries has also been tabled but that remains a more distant possibility at this stage", they add. "Meanwhile, the Italian treasury auctioned five and ten-year bonds at the highest yields since December. Spanish yields also continued to climb".

"FX markets should continue to remain choppy as the European summit unfolds and as such we retain our bias for U.S. dollar and yen strength over the near term", they conclude.

Forex Flash: Dollar firmer tone over the coming two weeks

Forex Flash: Dollar firmer tone over the coming two weeks

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Forex Flash: Dollar firmer tone over the coming two weeks - BBH

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After testing the 1.2745 zone throughout the last week and falling almost 245 pips from that level to break 1.2500 key number and trade close to the 1.2400 today, there is still room for additional declines in the EUR/USD taking the lack of decision from the Euro leaders.

"We expect the dollar to trade with a firmer tone over the coming two weeks," says the BBH research team in a recent report, "as the upside correction in major foreign currencies continues to reverse.

"The dollar has retraced nearly half of the June move against most of the majors and we think this is likely to continue as markets remain focused on the euro zone crisis," points BBH.

According to BBH Global Currency Strategy Team, in the EUR/USD "resistance near $1.2570, $1.2750, support near $1.2400, $1.2290."

USD/CAD rockets above 1.0300

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USD/CAD rockets above 1.0300

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is rallying against its Canadian counterpart. After rising more than 100 pips from intra-day low at 1.0230, the USD/CAD has broken 1.0270 zone and has climbed above the 1.0300 level to reach 1.0340 as fresh highest level since June 8th.

The cross is now pricing at 1.0335, adding 0.85% gains so far today. The Pair looks "Slightly Bullish" and "Extremely Oversold" according to the FXstreet.com technical studies.

The technical analyst team at ICN.com identify the next resistance levels at 1.0350 and 1.0375. On the downside, an exposure of the 1.0250 price would initiate support in 1.0230 and then 1.0200.

EUR/USD steady in a range as summit unfolds

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EUR/USD steady in a range as summit unfolds

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro continues to trade inside a 20-pip range as the European summit unfolds, although expectations toward the outcome remain low after a German government source said earlier on the day that the EU summit will produce no detailed decisions but seeks to accomplish important work on EU roadmap.

In the absence of news, the EUR/USD has spent the last hours consolidating inside a tight range just above its 3-week low of 1.2406 scored during the European session. At time of writing, the cross quotes around 1.2435, down 0.2% on the day, lacking momentum either side of the board.

As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.2406 followed by the 1.2375/85 zone and 1.2360/50. On the other hand, resistances could be found at 1.2475, 1.2500 and 1.2530.

USD/JPY Signal- June 27, 2012

USD/JPY Signal- June 27, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: USD/JPY
Trend Expected Direction: Up
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: USD/JPY 4H chart shows that the pair will continue its bullish sentiment. The pair is above the kumo (clouds) both on 30M4H charts.
Recommendation: Up
Target Area: 80.26
Stop-Loss: 79.42

EUR/USD Daily Outlook June 28, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook June 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/USD fell just slightly during the Wednesday session as the market prepares for the European Union’s summit meeting over the next 48 hours. Because of this, is very possible this pair may do very little over the next two days. However, there have been times in the past that we seem little rumors move this pair very quickly as leaks come out of these meetings.

The fact that the pair did rise this time in front of the meeting suggest that perhaps the market is running out of faith in the European Union leaders. In the past, we have seen the market take on risk in anticipation of the European leaders coming together with some kind of magic solution. In reality, every time this market has rallied we have seen an opportunity to sell it. I don't think that this is going to change anytime soon and especially because of the meeting.

Over the next 48 hours, you will probably hear all kinds of rumors coming out of the meeting. Normally, it will be some low-level aide repeating something to a reporter that they heard in whispers between two senior officials. In other words, it's a lot like high school. This is why a lot of the spikes that we have seen based upon these rumors end up being faded shortly thereafter.

Broken flag 1.25

Technically speaking, this pair has broken a bearish flag and looks set to continue falling. The market is most certainly in a downtrend, but it must be said that there are certainly some people out there still hoping against hope that the Europeans will come up with some kind of solution over the next 48 hours.

The 1.25 level of course has caused some type of support and reaction, but as it is already been violated by a couple hundred pips, I think you will be easily overcome this time. With this being said, I am either fading a rally or selling a break lower. For my trigger price, I am using a daily close under the 1.24 level.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 28, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

AUD/USD had another bullish session on Wednesday as traders take advantage of the bounce found at the parity level. The Australian dollar of course is one of the most favored risk assets for currency traders, and as such we may be seeing a little bit of pre-European summit buying. While the market’s reaction to the prospect of a solution coming out of the summit has been somewhat muted in comparison to previous ones, there will certainly be a segment of the population that is still trying to make a few pips off of the "hopium” trade.

The reality of the situation in Europe is that it all comes back to Germany. With Angela Merkel seemingly uninterested in budging, it is very unlikely that we get the bonds that people are looking for out of this meeting. A continent wide bond is more than likely going to be nothing short of a pipe dream at this point in time. The markets will undoubtedly be disappointed, and will find themselves at square one again if this is the case.

Parity bounce

The Australian dollar of course have seen a little bit of a resurgence over the last 40 hours, but a lot of this will come down to the fact that the parity level is such an obvious place for some traders to get back into the long side of the market. The candle from last Thursday was very strong and very negative, and because of this we are a bit suspicious of any bullish action at this point in time. Also, you have to keep in mind that the headline risks out of Europe will increase over the next 48 hours, as the summit is going on.

With this being said, I am not willing to buy this pair until we clear the 1.02 level on a daily close. Granted, I am probably giving it a lot more room than needed - but in this "risk on, risk off" type of market that we have currently, it makes sense to be very careful in the higher risk currencies like the Aussie dollar. As for selling, a break of the Monday lows would surely hammer that was violated and would interest me for a short position.

GBP/CHF Daily Outlook June 28, 2012

GBP/CHF Daily Outlook June 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

GBP/CHF had a slightly negative session on Wednesday as the markets fell to retest the 1.50 level for support. This pair is one that I don't cover very often, but is without a doubt one that can produce fireworks from time to time. Traditionally, this is a risk on trade when you go long. The reason being that the Swiss franc is considered one of the biggest safe haven currencies in the world.

One of the biggest things working in this pairs advantage at the moment is the fact that the Swiss National Bank has openly stated that it is buying British pounds in order to diversify its currency reserves. Obviously, this puts an upward pressure on this particular pair. Also, the Swiss are actively working against the Franc, and although it isn't necessarily in this pair directly, it is hard to think that they are actions won't have at least some kind of effect on it.

Capital seems to be flowing out of the continent and into the United Kingdom currently. There are several different reasons for this, with the most obvious one being that the continent is going to be struggling to grow economically for the next few years. Adding to this is the fact that the French have elected a government that has openly stated it will increase taxes on the wealthy.

Bullish flag

A few sessions ago, I had openly stated that I was buying this pair based upon a breakout of a bullish flag. I am still longer this pair, and the pullback on Wednesday’s session will do very little to change my opinion. It is quite common for these moves to be retraced as it allows people to join in that originally missed out on the move.

The bullish flag measures for a move up to 1.58, and as such I believe that this is the opportunity to have a nice long-term trade in a market that has been rather choppy over the last couple of years. As for selling this pair, I have absolutely no interest in it and will continue to buy. Once we make a new high, I will be looking to add in small positions incrementally on the way up to the aforementioned 1.58 level.

AUD/USD Heads Higher

AUD/USD Heads Higher

By: DailyForex.com

The Australian Dollar continues to gain against the Greenback during Asian trading with a high at time of writing of 1.01244. The Bullish Flag formation that we spoke of previously appears to be valid as price has now pushed above the Weekly Pivot at 1.0088 but is hitting resistance at some previous lows from May 6 7. If it can push through this resistance, the next hurdle will be the Weekly R1 at 1.0169 and then a consolidation zone at 1.0216 where the pair will most surely pause, if not reverse. However, the market has not yet opened in London, and as many know price often trades in the opposite direction during Asian trading than it does during the higher volume markets in London New York. If this is the case, we may actually see the bears take over later today and see price fall back below the Weekly Pivot. A daily Pin Bar from this level could easily signal lower prices and gains by the USD which would bring price back down to support at 0.9987 which sits just a bove the also relevant support level of 0.9954. With investors slowly migrating away from the EURO back to the USD as a 'safe haven' as it has been called, this is entirely possible by the end of the week.

Happy Trading!

USD/CHF rallies to 0.9678

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USD/CHF rallies to 0.9678

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CHF continues to retrace the first half of June’s downside from 0.9771 to 0.9420. The pair rallied some more in today’s European session after a German source played down the EU Summit’s achievements, saying it wouldn’t bring detailed decisions.

Also in the European session, the Italian government sold 10-year bonds and will be paying the average price of 6.19%.

“Clearance of range top at 0.9650 and the next barrier at 0.9675 is required to turn near-term focus towards 0.9700 and 0.9769”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica.

GBP/USD holding up at 1.5550 after UK data

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GBP/USD holding up at 1.5550 after UK data

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The yearly change of UK GDP in Q1 dropped from -0.1% to -0.2%, while total business investment jumped by 14.8% (from 1.6%) in the same time context.

After the plunge triggered by lowering expectations regarding the EU Summit, the GBP/USD bounced from 1.5528 low to 1.5550 area, where it still stands.

“On the downside, 1.5538/44 lows are reinforced by daily 20 day MA and slide below to expose 50% retracement at 1.5521 and 1.5500, round figure support, ahead of strong support at 1.5460, mid-June lows / Fib 61.8% of 1.5267/1.5776 upleg”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica.

Yields rise at Italian debt auction

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Yields rise at Italian debt auction

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Italy held a bond auction on Thursday during which it sold 5.423 billion worth of 5- and 10-year government bonds, meeting the target.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond reached 6.19%, in comparison with 6.03% seen at the last auction. The demand was weaker than previously. 5-year yields witnessed an increase to 5.84% (vs 5.66%) but the bid to cover ratio was 1.54, in comparison with the previous 1.35.

USD/CAD rallies to 20-day MA, 1.0275

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USD/CAD rallies to 20-day MA, 1.0275

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The risk aversion rally in the European session sent the USD/CAD up from its support at 1.0232 to the 20-day moving average at 1.0275.

Eurozone confidence data dropped in every parameter in June, Germany has 7000 more unemployed and German sources are playing down the EU Summit achievements. The WTI crude oil is back on losses, down by -0.60%, at 79.80.

The 20-day moving average could hold the pair at 1.0275 from more gains, ahead of 1.0300 psychological level. A break of the 1.0232 support would lead to 1.0160/75 (June 20/21 lows), followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.0120.

Spanish 10-year yield hits 7% once again

Spanish 10-year yield hits 7% once again

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Euro Investors Wary as Summit Looms

Euro Investors Wary as Summit Looms

By: DailyForex.com

The common currency remains on hold close to a 3-week trough against the U.S. Dollar but a sell off is capped as investors are cautiously optimistic of a surprise to the upside from the E.U. Summit which starts later today. As reported at 11:16 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.2488, edging higher against the $1.2466 trade overnight in the U.S., but remains within striking distance of the $1.24413 low struck earlier in the week. The pair also remains well off last week’s peak of $1.2748. One analyst in Tokyo said that the summit will convince investors that now is not the time for Euro buying.

Where there is some room for cautious optimism for the Euro’s future is from the European Central Bank; investors are hopeful that next week the ECB might wade into the fray and relieve some of the obvious funding strains. Speculators are counting on the ECB to provide either a rate cut or the announcement of another LTRO at the conclusion of its policy meeting. Recent new that inflation cooled in Germany would give the ECB a little breathing room and allow them to be more accommodative.

Markets will turn their attention to the Eurozone for any surprise news out of the E.U. Summit, but will also be anxious to learn the outcome of today’s Italian bond auction; analysts expect that their borrowing costs could rise above 6%.

Cyprus Debt Downgraded

Cyprus Debt Downgraded

By: DailyForex.com

Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004 and is a member of the Eurozone, adopting the common currency in 2008. The island of Cyprus is the largest in the eastern Mediterranean, but has been divided into a Turkish and a Greek region since 1974 when Turkey occupied the north of the island. Unification talks are underway and whilst the whole island is part of the EU, full rights only apply to those who can show themselves to be citizens of the internationally recognised part of the island (the Turkish enclave is only recognised as a sovereign state by Turkey itself).

Unsurprisingly, there are strong financial links between Cyprus and Greece and this means that the woes that have befallen Greece are having a knock-on effect in Cyprus. Exposure to the Greek debt crisis is such that Cyprus is having to ask its EU partners for a bailout. The scale of the bailout is modest in comparison to other packages and estimates place it as between €5 billion to €10 billion â€" the funds being needed to recapitalise its banking sector. The loan will be discussed at the EU summit meeting later this week.

Fitch’s ratings agency has just joined Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s in reducing Cyprus’s credit rating to junk status. Whilst this does not preclude Cyprus from raising money on international markets, it makes it very much more expensive. Given that Spain is likely to receive up to €100 billion to recapitalise its banks, it is highly unlikely that Cyprus would not get a sympathetic hearing for its request â€" the cost of a refusal would be immeasurably higher in terms of damage to the credibility of the single European currency.

EUR/USD Signal- June 27, 2012

EUR/USD Signal- June 27, 2012

Fadi Steitie

Fadi Steitie is an entrepreneur, investor and professional Forex trader who shares Forex signals based on his keen understanding of the market. Fadi is an expert in Elliott wav principles and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, and he is a managing partner in one of the leading organizations in protective coating in the Gulf region.

In addition to sharing his trades as a member of the DailyForex trading team, Fadi is an expert trader on eToro, a social platform that allows traders to copy experts quickly and easily. Copy Fadi's trades on eToro here.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 27, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 27, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

This pair could be a bit of a tough one to trade in the near term. After all, the Australian economy is heavily influenced by the mining sector, and this is heavily influenced by exporting to places like China. In fact, one of the best ways to think of the Aussie is to trade it as a proxy for the Yuan. As long as the Yuan isn’t traded freely, the Aussie will be the preferred proxy for it.

The recent global outlook isn’t all that hot. Because of this, I think that the Aussie will suffer over time, but there are of course going to be bounces from time to time. I believe that we may be in one of those bounces right now, as we saw the market find support at the parity level, which of course is also the 50% Fibonacci level from the fall. (This has been moved above and below in the past â€" but quite often the markets will react none the less.)

The Chinese economy is supposedly slowing down, and there are now reports that the country may be moving more slowly than previously thought. Antidotal evidence coming out of China suggests that the economy is struggling in many ways. After all, this shouldn’t be surprising to anyone who has read about the “Ghost cities” that have been built in the western part of that country. If you are in a situation where you are building cities to increase employment and not to house people â€" you probably have a serious underlying problem. However, I am probably getting far ahead of myself at the moment.

Parity, 50%, and 1.02

For my money, I think the hammer that formed at the parity level was about as simple as it gets. However, it is against the fundamental and technical analysis as far as the trend goes â€" so buying wasn’t the easiest thing to do yesterday. However, now we have to think about where to go from here now. The easiest route is going to be lower, and I think the 1.02 level should keep a lid on things. We are only one headline out of Europe from a selloff in the commodity currencies, and as a result I am willing to sell on bearish action in general.

USD/SGD Breaks Formation

USD/SGD Breaks Formation

By: DailyForex.com

Like most of the pairs tied to the US Dollar, the USD/SGD daily chart has printed a nice bullish flag formation, and has actually broken out of the descending channel with the last 2 daily candles that have printed. Price broke as high as 1.2843 the day before yesterday, testing the Weekly R1 at 1.2834, and then fell to 1.2755 before closing higher at 1.2783 and crating a candle that hints at a continuation higher today. Price has also tested both the 5 13 EMA's which are acting as support just above the Weekly Pivot at 1.2739. During lower volume Asian trading today price has remained slightly bearish, also an indication that volume will push the pair higher during London or New York trading hours. Intraday Resistance well be at 1.2785, 1.2815 1.2842 with Weekly R levels at 1.2835 1.2887. To the downside we see Intraday support at 1.2753, 1.2723 Weekly S1 at 1.2686. Technically speaking, this pair is quite Bullish unless we see price close below 1.2750 when moment um will probably shift to the Bears.

Happy Trading!

Mid Week Summary: June 25-29

Mid Week Summary: June 25-29

By: Nikoletta Panteli

EUR/USD

The Euro weakened at the start of the new week against the US Dollar on heightened risk aversion in the market. The pair opened at 1.2538, rose to 1.2530 and later traded at two-year lows falling to 1.2455, a 0.6% decline. Investors are now worried about the escalating problems in Spain’s banking sector while the Spanish borrowing costs rose following an auction on Tuesday. Fears were intensified after rating agency Moody’s downgraded Spain’s long term debt and deposit ratings for 28 Spanish banks. Risks of contagion to other eurozone countries are higher and are now looking to the European summit where the Eurozone debt crisis may be resolved. While this is happening, there is some pessimism that is dominating the markets as investors are doubting that there may be an agreement at the summit for substantive action. On Monday, it was announced that Cyprus is going to be the fifth eurozone country to request financial aid due to it's banks being hit by exposure to the heavily indebted Greece. Last week, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) extended “Operation Twist” to the end of 2012 and did not announce a third round of quantitative easing supporting the US dollar. Attention also shifts to the US Durable Goods Orders, Gross Domestic Product as well as the eurozone Consumer Price Index.

GBP/USD

The British Pound edged higher versus the US Dollar at the beginning of this week. The pair opened at 1.5580 and rose as high as 1.5650. The debt crisis in the Eurozone and the deepening problems of the Spanish banking sector weighed on the Sterling and boosted investors’ appetite for the safe haven Dollar. On Tuesday, Sterling dropped after the Bank of England (BoE) said that Britain’s economic outlook has worsened due to the eurozone problems. They also said that next month there are some expectations for a new round of asset purchases based on King's comments. According to King, the central bank may need to change some things as the UK economy slipped into its second recession since the start of the financial crisis. The UK Gross Domestic Product is also expected to be released this week.

EUR/JPY

The single currency plummeted versus the Japanese Yen this week weighed by the eurozone deepening debt problems. Investors’ doubt that this week’s EU summit will produce a neat resolution while the Yen attracts safe haven demand as uncertainty in the markets is heightened. The pair opened at 101.01 this week and slid as low as 98.74, a 2.2%% decline. Retail Sales, Purchasing Manager Index and Consumer Price Index from Japan may give a picture about the economic conditions in the country.

EUR/GBP

The single currency edged lower against the British Pound yesterday falling to 0.7984 after the pair opened at 0.8046. Sterling appears strong, supported by its safe haven status as its triple-A rated government bonds attract increasing demand, while the eurozone is suffering from stagnation in economic growth. Focus remains on the eurozone periphery countries such as Spain and now Cyprus as eurozone debt contagion fears weigh on the single currency.

USD/CHF

The Greenback rose against the Swiss Franc this week. The pair opened at 0.9578 and rose to 0.9641. Deflation continues to be a threat for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) putting pressure on it to intervene in the currency markets in order to weaken the franc. The SNB has set a floor at 1.20 in September for the Euro versus the Swiss Franc in order to protect its exports. The Swiss economy has managed to escape an economic contraction and a 1% economic growth is expected for 2012.

Successful Trades on June 27, 2012

Successful Trades on June 27, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

AUD/USD

Based on Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the AUD/USD, this pair is heading down. That creates an investment opportunity on the following instrument: “Low”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,150 on the "Low" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 81% if the option expires below the strike price, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $931 on my investment.

The strike price for AUD/USD at the buying time (11:42) was 1.00556 for the expiry of 12:00. The expiry price for the pair was 1.00547, below my strike price, meaning I won my position.

GBP/USD

Based on Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the GBP/USD, "I still think selling will more than likely be the route to go". That’s creates an investment opportunity in the following instruments: “Low”, “Touch Down“ and “No Touch”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,400 on the "Touch Down" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 72% if the market touches my strike price prior to expiry, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $1,008 on my investment.

The market price for the GBP/USD at the buying time (11:59) was 1.56177 and the strike price was 1.56129 for the expiry of 12:15. The market hit the strike price at 12:00 and I won my position in less than 2 minutes!

Investors Lose Hope with E.U. Summit

Investors Lose Hope with E.U. Summit

By: DailyForex.com

The common currency edged higher in Asian trading today after striking a 2-week trough yesterday, but analysts say that gains were capped as hopes that the upcoming E.U. summit could offer any positive outcome were dashed. Investors had been hopeful that the proposal for a joint Eurobond would be kept alive; the plan had gotten support from several key proponents including France’s Francois Hollande and the IMF Chief Christine Lagarde, but German Chancellor Merkel remains steadfast in her resolve that there will be no joint Eurobond for, as she put it, “as long as I live.”

Analysts are so sure that there will be no positive outcome that would support any long term gains that they are forecasting the possibility of the EUR/USD breaking through $1.20 by the end of 2012. For now, though, the pair is holding steady; as reported at 1:18 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Euro was trading at $1.2503, a 0.1% gain and off the Tuesday low of $1.24413. The Euro also held steady against the Japanese Yen, trading at 99.34 Yen, following a 2-week low struck yesterday when it hit 98.74 Yen.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar fell against the Japanese currency, dropping to 79.44 Yen, well off the 2-month peak struck on Monday. Currency strategists say that political uncertainty in Japan might weigh on the safe haven currency; the Japanese Prime Minister is facing the possibility that his party could split and might have to face a snap election as a controversial and unpopular tax increase works its way through the Japanese Parliament.

Japan Starts On Painful Path

Japan Starts On Painful Path

By: DailyForex.com

Japan has the largest level of public debt of any industrialised country at more than twice the nation’s GDP. Fortunately for the Japanese, much of this debt is held at home, but any loss of confidence in Japan’s ability to meet its obligations could send borrowing costs sky-rocketing.

In common with all political leaderships, the Japanese know that they need to take steps to reduce their debt burden; not least because Japan is sitting on a demographic time bomb. Japan has an aging population and it is estimated that 40% of its population will be of retirement age by 2060. As more people enter retirement, government revenues through income taxes will decline, but an older population will require ever greater expenditure on social security â€" most notably healthcare.

As a measure to reduce the debt burden, the government is pushing through a doubling of the sales tax to 10% which will be brought in from 2015. The measure has just passed the lower house, but it is highly divisive. Understandably, the move is unpopular with the electorate, but it also risks a schism within the ruling DJP. 57 members of the government’s party refused to vote for the bill and party founder Ichiro Ozawa has hinted that he could form a break-away party. If this were to happen and gain enough traction, it could force Prime Minister Noda into a general election. The measures need to be approved by the upper chamber before they can pass into law.

Japan is still struggling with an over-valued currency which has been buoyed as a safe-haven. The Yen currently stands 12.7% higher against the Euro than at this time last year.

Successful Trades on June 26, 2012

Successful Trades on June 26, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

EUR/GBP

Based on Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the EUR/GBP, this pair is heading down while the first target is 0.80 and the next support level is at 0.76. That creates an investment opportunity on the following instrument: “Low”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,200 on the "Low" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 80% if the option expires below the strike price, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $960 on my investment.

The strike price for EUR/GBP at the buying time (11:41) was 0.80060 for the expiry of 12:00. The expiry price for the pair was 0.80036, below my strike price, and therefore I won my position.

EUR/USD

Based on Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the EUR/USD, the pairs trend is very obviously down. That’s creates an investment opportunity in the following instruments: “Low”, “Touch Down “and “No Touch”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,350 on the "Touch Down" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 77% if the market touches my strike price prior to expiry, meaning that I made the right decision and the signal is correct I could get a return of $1,039 on my investment.

The market price for the EUR/USD at the buying time (12:19) was 1.24888 and the strike price was 1.24843 for the expiry of 12:30. The market hit the strike price at 12:20, which means I won my position in less than 2 minutes!

EUR/USD Daily Outlook June 26, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook June 26, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/USD is the absolute center of attention for most Forex traders at the moment. With the seemingly never ending drama in the EU, there is almost always going to be a headline to react to. The truth is that if most people were honest, they would admit that the situation in Europe is just about beyond repair, and even if the politicians somehow figure things out â€" the EU is going to be struggling for a while.

The “hopium” trade in this market has been pretty remarkable to be honest. It seemed like forever before 1.30 finally gave way in May, and there were many people asking if that level was ever going to collapse. Now that we have seen it give way, the 1.25 level was bound to be hit, and this is where we find the market now.

The formation for the Monday candle was a hammer, and this shouldn’t really be a surprise as there is almost always a reaction to a large round number like 1.25 â€" and especially on the “500” pip intervals. The market loves round numbers, and the Monday reaction was a perfect example of that in action.

Flag and 1.25

Much like my analysis of EUR/GBP, in this pair we find the market with a potential bearish flag, and a massive round number just below it. This is why I think the 1.25 ultimately will be a big one and having said this â€" I think it is giving way at the moment. The flag’s pole measures 1,000 pips and this gives us a potential target on the downside of 1.15 or so.

Yes, I know this sounds a bit farfetched, but don’t forget that this is a target in pips, not time. Giving up a thousand pips over the course of 18 months isn’t that outrageous. Also, if the European Union is going to be in a slow growth mode for a few years â€" this really isn’t as outrageous as it sounds. I am getting at the fact that we may have a long way to go to the downside over time is all.

With the candle on Monday, a break of the bottom would be a seriously bad sign for the bulls. Granted, the top of the hammer is a buy signal on its own right, but with the trend being so obviously down, and the EU having a meeting at the end of the week â€" I am ignoring buy signals at the moment.

Eurozone Heavyweights To Boost Growth

Eurozone Heavyweights To Boost Growth

By: DailyForex.com

The governments of the four largest economies within the Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, have agreed to boost economic growth within the bloc. They are targeting a 1% boost to GDP to be achieved by boosting spending on infrastructure and other investments to the tune of €130 billion. For instance, the European Investment Bank would get an additional €10 billion of capital which would bolster its lending capacity by a multiple of this. “Project bonds” would be generated for infrastructure projects such as enhancements to pan-European transport networks. Also, the plan calls for unused money in regional funds held by the European Commission to be fully utilised.

Critics have already pointed out that the move is more symbolic than anything else since little or no new monies will be involved. The four leaders were meeting ahead of an EU summit meeting. No new common ground has been found with respect to the issuance of Eurobonds as a means of securing low cost finance by creating bonds which are backed by more than one nation. The Germans seem implacably opposed to the idea.

The French are keen to push the idea of a 0.1% financial tax on all EU-based financial transactions as a mechanism of raising much needed revenue. However, the British will not agree to such a tax for fear that it should harm the position of London as a leading financial centre. The Brits are afraid that financial institutions might relocate to areas outside the reach of the new tax, but the worry does not stand up to scrutiny. 80% of the new tax would be raised in London, so the obvious solution would be to defray the UK’s contributions to the EU against the new tax to some extent. The same UK politicians who are opposed to the new tax were the very people proposing caps to salaries of leading financiers recently â€" if anything would spur them to high-tail it to other jurisdictions, a personal blow to the wallet has to be high up on the list. It could certainly be argued that a much greater harm is being done to the City by the on-going saga of the Euro crisis.

Mr Monti had warned his EU peers that failure to agree on joint action would encourage market attacks on their economies. He had predicted "progressively greater speculative attacks" without unified action from all the eurozone members.
Speaking after the talks, Mr Monti asserted in English that "the Euro is here to stay, and we all mean it".

"We expect the conclusions of the EU summit will be more solid and credible compared with previous summits as far as growth is concerned," he predicted.
French President Francois Hollande, who made agreement of a European growth pact the central plank of his election platform last month, said the package would be "indispensable".

He said the four eurozone leaders had, he said, "made the prospect for growth much more concrete", asking whether anyone would have imagined a few weeks ago that the idea of growth would be on the agenda of the EU summit.

NZD/USD Heading Lower

NZD/USD Heading Lower

By: DailyForex.com

The Kiwi has retrace just a little higher than the 61.8% retracement level of the Bearish run that started in April and ended at the beginning of June. Price reacted with a very bearish power candle after hitting 0.80146 and has been consolidating just above the 62EMA at 0.7850 for the last 2 trading days. Although a small pin bar printed on yesterday's daily chart, it is caught between the EMA 5 EMA 13 and appears to be more bearish than bullish, as so many other key pairs do. The Weekly Pivot is also acting as a ceiling for the pair at 0.7911 and holds the key for the Bulls advance. If price can push back up and close above this level we might see a bullish continuation...but breaking the Weekly High will be the real show of strength and might not be in the cards right now. To the (more likely) downside, price will need to close below 0.7950 and preferably below the Weekly S1 at 0.7807 to really get things going. If price does fall, the next likely target will be 0. 7700 but it might take some time to get there.

Happy Trading!

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook June 26, 2012

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook June 26, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/GBP has been one that I have been very interested in lately, as the pair is currently looking to break a major bearish flag, and the Euro is so unloved at the moment. The 0.80 level is right there as well, so a lot of things are lining up at the same time â€" something I like to see.

The European Union is holding a summit on Thursday and Friday of this week, and it looks as if the market isn’t willing to buy on “hopium” this time. In fact, it is almost as if the market has finally come to understand that the politicians in Europe are nowhere near a consensus on what to do. Essentially the situation is that we have a multitude of countries that are asking the Germans to bail them out. (Maybe the Dutch and Finns as well, but both of those countries are far too small to be a major factor.)

There are reports of many wealthy Europeans sending their wealth into the United Kingdom as the various problems in Europe have them looking for some kind of safe haven. The French are about to increase taxes drastically, and there are even central banks, such as the one in Switzerland, that are buying Pounds as well. It is because of this that the Pound has enjoyed strength over the Euro â€" on top of all of the European drama at the moment.

Flag breaking down?

The flag looks like it is ready to give way. I obviously cannot buy this market at the moment, as the trend is so negative and there are a multitude of reasons to avoid owning the Euro in general. The flag measures for a drive down to the 0.76 level, and I think that the move is certainly feasible given the circumstances surrounding the European Union.

The 0.80 level will have to give way for me to be completely comfortable being short, but this looks to be about to happen. If there is nothing that comes out of the meeting this week in Europe, I think this pair should begin the next leg down.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 26, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook June 26, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The Aussie dollar isn’t one of my favorite currencies at the moment. The Aussies have recently cut their rates, and it looks like they are set to do so again in the near future. The Aussie is also highly correlated to risk assets and risk appetite in general, and as the economic outlook for so much of the planet is questionable, it is hard to think that buying the Aussie is the right thing to do.

More pressing than anything else, it looks as if China is slowing down. The Australians send a lot of their raw materials to China to be used in the manufacturing process that supplies so much of the world with “stuff.” One way to think of Australia is that it is China’s “general store.” As long as the Chinese are manufacturing at a strong pace, the Aussies will have a large customer to the north that will be willing to buy their gold, copper, and many other exports.

However, what then happens if China’s customers suddenly find themselves broke? Remember, Europe is China’s largest trading partner â€" not the United States. With the recession in Europe, this is starting to cut into demand for Chinese products. Also, the United States isn’t exactly running on all four cylinders either, so there is more than likely going to be continued slowing in the demand part of the equation.

Hammer at the parity level â€" and the 50% Fibonacci level.

Even with all of that being said, there is a somewhat bullish feel to this chart. The Monday action managed to form a hammer, and this was even formed at the “perfect” spot. The parity level makes sense as a potential support level based not only on the level itself, but the cluster of action two weeks ago. Adding to all of that, there is the 50% Fibonacci retrace level as well.

The hammer for the Monday session sets up rather nicely as a signal. Obviously, there is a bit of bullishness to this if we go higher at this point. However, don’t forget that a failed buy signal like this means something too. In other words, I am buying on a break higher, and selling on a break of the bottom of this hammer as it would be very bearish.

Euro Softens as Investors’ Hopes Fade

Euro Softens as Investors’ Hopes Fade

By: DailyForex.com

The Euro was holding close to a 2-week trough against the U.S. Dollar during the Asian trading session as investors’ expectations of a fruitful outcome to the E.U. summit fade. Consequently, risk averse investors have pushed the safe haven Japanese Yen sharply and broadly higher, and against the U.S. Dollar it is well off the recently struck 2-month low. As reported at 11:22 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.24713 before recovering to $1.2505, nearly unchanged from late New York trade. The USD/JPY pair slipped to 79.74 Yen, falling from the 2-month peak of 80.63 Yen which was struck yesterday.

Several factors have conspired to dash investors’ collective hopes, with the most prevalent among them the reiteration of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position that a joint Euro bond was not a viable option at this point in time, saying it was counterproductive. Also the absence of any Greek representation at the E.U. summit is weighing on sentiment; the newly appointed Greek finance minister has resigned his position citing health issues while the Greek Prime Minister was also not in attendance having just been released from hospital. Last but not least, Spain issued a formal request for bailout assistance in order to recapitalize its banking system, with some estimates suggesting that that amount could be as much as €100 billion.

Forex Week in Review- June 25, 2012

Forex Week in Review- June 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

With the exception of the Dow Jones, all of the world’s major stock markets ended the week higher.

In Europe over the course of the week, the FTSE was up by 0.64%, it closed at 5513.7; the Dax ended the week at 6263.3, climbing by 0.54% over the week; the CAC was up by 0.11% to end the session at 3090.9.

The Dow ended the week lower to the tune of 0.99 % at 12640.8. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week at 2892.4 climbing 0.68% over the course of the week.

The Nikkei closed up over the course of the week’s trading, making 2.7% to end the trading session at 8798.4.

Currency Markets Review

On the currency markets last week, Sterling saw the best of trading. The Dollar was weaker against Sterling, shedding 0.50% and closing at 1.55919 to the Pound. The Greenback was stronger against the Euro last week, climbing by 0.45% to close at 1.2539. The Dollar also made ground against the Japanese currency, closing at 80.2935 to the Yen, a gain of 1.9% on the week.

The Euro strengthened against the Yen ending at 100.68, a gain of 1.5% over the course of the week. The Euro was weaker against Sterling over the course of the week, falling by 0.96%; the close saw one £ buying 1.24347.

Commodities Market Review

On the commodities market, the price for Brent crude ended lower, closing at $90.68 per barrel (for August delivery); a fall of 7.1% over the course of the week’s trading. Oil has not been cheaper since December 2010. The value of gold was lower last week, closing at $1565.5 per ounce, representing a loss of 3.8% over last week’s value.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook June 25, 2012

USD/JPY Daily Outlook June 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

USD/JPY is a pair that I have been watching for some time now. With the Bank of Japan working in the shadows, there has been somewhat of a natural bid in this market. Granted, the pair has many should drift lower but we have seen a bit of support as the 78 handle. It is below this level that the Bank of Japan tends to get involved in this pair via intervention. It is because of this that I have wondered how long it was going to take before the pair started to move higher.

With the Federal Reserve extending the Operation Twist, the value of the dollar will rise as the stepped in to buy longer dated bonds. The Japanese yen is especially sensitive to this, and as a result we have seen a bit of a burst tire in this pair. However, we are not at the level that I want to see in order to go along.

I should state that any trade that I taking this pair is more of a long-term nature, and not a short term scalp. It is because of this that I am fully accepting of any losses that I get. The fact is that the risk to reward ratio is massive for the type of trade him talking about.

80.50 And beyond

Looking at this pair, it becomes quite obvious to me that the 80 zone actually extends all the way up to the 80.50 level. While the Friday action did see us attempt to break out and above it, the market failed to stay that high. However, the fact that the market is closing just a few pips under that level makes me believe that we will in fact see a breakout soon.

With this in mind, a daily close above the 80.50 level has been buying this pair. I will aim for nothing less than at least the 83 handle, if not the 84 handle. If we can get above 84, this would be a trade that I would be willing to hang onto for months, if not years. The fact is that the Japanese economy doesn't deserve a currency that is this strong. With its aging population, the Japanese will find themselves having to get creative in buying their own bonds. Because of this, there will come a day when the Yen finds itself very weak again.

GBP/CHF Daily Outlook June 25, 2012

GBP/CHF Daily Outlook June 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

GBP/CHF is a pair that I don't often talk about, but it is one that can offer strong returns as it does tend to trend in move so rapidly in one direction or the other. In the current environment, the Swiss National Bank has been working against the value of the Swiss franc actively. The SNB has even gone on record as saying they are buying British pounds, which obviously lends itself to having this pair rise over time.

Typically, this is a risk on type of environment for the Forex trader. In times of past, the Swiss franc would be the currency of choice for many looking to find shelter in the financial markets. However, with the Swiss interventions this has changed somewhat. In fact, it almost makes the Swiss franc related pairs one way trades. One obvious example is the Swiss franc against the Euro, anyone who has looked at this pair over the last several months knows that there is a floor and it at the 1.20 level. The main reason they can't rise isn't the Franc, it's the fact that the Euro and sell unlocked. Contrast this with the British pound, which of course is a currency that many Europeans are using is a safe haven. Is because of this that we think this pair will eventually rise in value.

Bullish flag

One of the most intriguing things about this pair to me right now is the fact that it doesn't seem to be on anyone's radar. While the rest the world talks about Europe and European problems, they tend to focus solely on the Euro itself. However, one should remember that there are several different European currencies still, and the Pound and Franc are two of them.

Currently we have a bullish flag that starts near the 1.44 level, and rises to the 1.51 level. This suggests that we will see a 700 pip gain if the top of this flag is broken. With the Swiss National Bank working against the value of the franc, and the British pounds relative strength against other currencies in comparison to the Euro, this move would make sense. I have no interest in selling this pair, only buying a breakout.

EUR/USD Signal- June 25, 2012

EUR/USD Signal- June 25, 2012

Fadi Steitie

Fadi Steitie is an entrepreneur, investor and professional Forex trader who shares Forex signals based on his keen understanding of the market. Fadi is an expert in Elliott wav principles and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, and he is a managing partner in one of the leading organizations in protective coating in the Gulf region.

In addition to sharing his trades as a member of the DailyForex trading team, Fadi is an expert trader on eToro, a social platform that allows traders to copy experts quickly and easily. Copy Fadi's trades on eToro here.

USD/CHF Signal- June 25, 2012

USD/CHF Signal- June 25, 2012

Fadi Steitie

Fadi Steitie is an entrepreneur, investor and professional Forex trader who shares Forex signals based on his keen understanding of the market. Fadi is an expert in Elliott wav principles and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, and he is a managing partner in one of the leading organizations in protective coating in the Gulf region.

In addition to sharing his trades as a member of the DailyForex trading team, Fadi is an expert trader on eToro, a social platform that allows traders to copy experts quickly and easily. Copy Fadi's trades on eToro here.

Successful Trades on June 25, 2012

Successful Trades on June 25, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

USD/CAD

According to Fadi Steitie’s analysis of the USD/CAD, this pair is going down, this creates an opportunity on the instruments: “Low”, “Touch Down” and “No Touch”.
I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,000 on the "Touch Down" instrument.

This kind of option has a return of 71% if the option hits the strike price prior to expiry, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $710 on my investment.

The market price for USD/CAD at the buying time (10:50) was 1.02769 and the target price was 1.02721 for the expiration of 11:15. The price touched my strike price at 11:13 which means I won $710 as expected.

EUR/USD

Based on Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the EUR/USD the pair will continue to stay bearish for today. That’s creates an investment opportunity in the following instruments: “Low”, “Touch Down “and “No Touch”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,000 on the "Low" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 85% if the option closes below the target price. If the signal is correct I could get a return of $850 on my investment.

The target price for EUR/USD at the buying time (11:34) was 1.25084 for the expiration of 11:45. Even though the market moved in the right direction, I chose to close the position prior to the expiration. The market price was 1.25046 and I won $337 in 4 minutes.

USD Strengthens on Safe Haven Status

USD Strengthens on Safe Haven Status

By: DailyForex.com

In Asian trading, the U.S. Dollar extended earlier gains as its appeal as a safe haven status increased as investors’ concerns over the Eurozone crisis and a global slowdown weighed heavily on risk appetite.

As reported at 10:23 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the U.S. Dollar Index, which is viewed by traders as a gauge of the greenback’s strength, was trading at 82.361 .DXY, not far from the 82.469 peak set on Friday; last week the Index gained 1%. The greenback was also higher against the Euro and the Japanese Yen; the EUR/USD was trading at $1.2536, a drop of 0.3% from late trade in New York on Friday; against the Japanese Yen the USD/JPY pair was trading at 80.63 Yen before retreating to 88.34 Yen as profit taking ensued.

Market players are likely to keep trading Euro tightly within ranges as the E.U. finance ministers meeting gets under way; the E.U. leaders will concentrate on a resolution for the Eurozone’s problems, including among other things the possible renegotiation of some of the original bailout terms for Greece. Most analysts agree that there is great potential for disappointment from the E.U. summit meeting, and suggest that currency traders not become too bullish.

Pin That Bar- Wait, What is That?

Pin That Bar- Wait, What is That?

By: DailyForex.com

One of the key entry criteria we use in our Live Room is the Pin Bar. This is a simple bar or candle that is very easy to recognize visually.

The definition that WE use in our live room for a Pin Bar is this:
“The Open and Close must be in the top third or the bottom third of the bar. Therefore, the tail must make up two thirds of the entire candle size. Also, the Open and Close of the Pin Bar has to be within the range of the high and low of the previous bar.”

(Our own definition for a Pin Bar is slightly different from the more standard definitions you may have read from other sources. Notice also we’re not concerned if the candle’s open his higher than its close.)

Visually the Pin Bar candle looks something like this:

It’s pretty easy to spot on a chart. Essentially, you’re looking for a candle with a relatively long tale and the open close of that candle to be within the previous bar’s range. That’s it.

Conceptually, this candle reflects a reversal in momentum. For example, with a bearish Pin Bar, the price opens then moves up rapidly but rejects the price levels above. It moves back down to close near its open and near the bottom of the range of the bar.

But a Pin Bar by itself doesn’t mean that we should just enter a trade automatically. It has to tie in meaningfully with the surrounding price action.

Let’s get right to an example. This trade was one that we called in our Live Room earlier in the week based on a Pin Bar on the 15-Minute EUR/JPY chart.

The price had run up rapidly and then began to trade in a range. After marking out a resistance, the price produced a Pin Bar (highlighted in grey). The high of the Pin Bar (marked on the above chart by the red dotted line) matched the previous resistance within couple of pips. We entered short at the open of the next candle. The stop-loss was just above the high of the Pin Bar (17 pips); the trade netted +48 pips.

The reversal indicated by a Pin Bar matched previous resistance and allowed us a safe entry near the very beginning of a downtrend.

In summary:
1. A Pin Bar is a candle with a long tail and the open close either in the top or bottom third of the bar. It marks a potential reversal in price.
2. A Pin Bar must be viewed in context of the surrounding price action and trades based on it must have the usual risk/reward considerations.

How to Stop Losing Money in the Forex Markets

How to Stop Losing Money in the Forex Markets

By: Johnathon Fox

For many traders long gone are the hopes of making millions of dollars over night, and all they wish to do is stop losing money and begin to turn their trading accounts around. There are many mistakes that traders make that contribute to getting themselves into this situation, and this article is going to cover the top 5 things traders can do to turn their accounts and performance around!

Pick a Trading Method and Perfect it

Traders that come to Forex in most cases are looking to make a lot of money and very fast! To achieve this they begin to chase the “Holy Grail” that will make them all their riches. Instead of looking for a method that will give them gradual success, they search for the latest fancy indicator that will do all the work for them. I am here to tell you that we all would be rich if this was possible!

If you are serious about making money in the Forex markets it is time you get rid of this mentality and settle in to learning a method that you can use for the long term.
One method that can be used to trade the markets successfully is Price Action trading. Price Action trading has been around for a long time and it will be around for a long time to come. Price Action trading will not stop working every time the market dynamics change.

Price Action trading involves traders learning to read the raw price on a chart, and focussing on high probability Price Action patterns that repeat themselves. Price Action is a very simple method that most traders can get their head around with a little help and the correct education.

Once a trader has picked the method that best suits their trading style they need to give up on the idea of the “Holy Grail” and begin perfecting their chosen trading method. Chopping and changing trading methods only leads to confusion and frustration.

The only way to perfect your chosen trading method is to commit to it, and practise it until you have perfected it!

Learn to trade on the Higher Time Frames

Many traders have the misconception that the lower the time frame chart, the more chance they have of making a trade and thus making money. Whilst it is true that traders will get more signals the lower the time frame chart they go down to, it is also true the lower the time frame the more false signals there are and the harder it becomes to making money.

Traders can begin to turn their trading around by taking just this point on alone! The higher time frame charts are where most trading should be done for learning traders.
One of the best reasons the daily chart is a lot more powerful than a lower time frame charts such as the 1hr chart is because of the time that goes into making the signals. An example of this is an inside bar. If we see an inside bar on the 1 hour chart we know that price could not break out of the previous candles range for 1 hour. If however we see an inside bar on the daily chart it means price has gone through all trading sessions including the UK and US sessions and has been unable to break out of the previous day’s range. Obviously a candle with the 24 hours worth of information is telling us a lot more than the candle made up of only 1 hour!

Because of this extra time that goes into making the daily chart signals compared to the lower time frames, the signals are much more reliable and powerful.

Stop Watching Charts All Day Long

Once a trader has committed to only trading the larger time frames such as the daily chart, it is now time to turn get rid of one of the most wide spread trading mistakes there is: “Watching the Charts All Day”!

This trading habit is a very serious mistake many traders make. If traders were to watch the charts all day and not doing anything this would be fine, but from watching the charts all day traders start to make mistakes such as:

Enter trades when they shouldn’t
Take trades off when they shouldn’t
Take profit when they shouldn’t
Tighten stops when they shouldn’t

When a trader has committed to trading the daily charts only they only need to look at their charts once a day. That is it!

When the market closes for the day the trader should switch their charts on and look for possible trade setups. If there is a trade they should set their entry, stops and targets. If there is no trade they need to turn their computer off and walk away and do something else!

There is nothing more they can do. The market has to move and it will do the same thing whether you are watching it or not. Walk away and let the market “do its thing”.

Only Trade With Money You Can Afford to Lose

In the Forex market scared money is lost money. A trader who is placing trades with scared money may as well just give it to a charity. The reason this is the case is because when a trader is fearful they will make trading decisions that reflect that.
The trader who is playing with scared money will commit all type of psychological trading mistakes that will ensure that money is lost.

The only money that should ever be risked in the Forex markets is money that a trader can afford to lose. Traders should never risk money they need for their kids or to put food on the table! This rule is important.

Some people will be saying but I only have $100 for a trading account. This is fine. Many brokers offer mini and micro accounts that will let you trade risking only a few dollars at a time and continue to use correct money management. Over time you can keep adding money to your account from savings to build it up.

Work on Your Mind

One of the most over looked problems in trading is the psychology side of trading. Many traders concentrate day in and day out solely on their trading method or system. This is why many people fail at the Forex business, and as long as they don’t work on their mind they will continue to fail.

Many mistakes a trader makes are based on how they approach and think about the markets and their trading. Trading is a battle that is very much waged in the mind. If a trader doesn’t have the correct mindset and way of thinking, Forex will be forever an uphill battle.

Traders need to focus on this aspect of trading and begin to learn all they can. Reading books and blogs from professional traders is a great way to pick up on skills you can implement into your own trading.

A great book that will help you begin to think about the Forex markets in the correct manner is “Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas”. I highly recommend buying this book and applying all the principles it contains.