Kamis, 31 Mei 2012

Euro Derailed by Spanish Concerns

Euro Derailed by Spanish Concerns

By: DailyForex.com

As Spain’s woes grow, the common currency Euro is set to post its largest drop against the U.S. Dollar in eight months. Bond yields on Spanish sovereign debt once again surged upward, striking a 6-month high and widening the differential between Spanish debt and German bunds. One currency analyst in Tokyo believes that markets are pricing in Spain as the next target.

As reported at 12:54 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Euro-Dollar was trading at $1.2389, recovering from a low of $1.2358 a level which hadn’t been seen in almost two years. As the month of May closes out, the EUR/USD pair is poised to record a 6.6% drop. The Euro also fell against the safe haven Japanese Yen, with the EUR/JPY pair edging closer to 97.04 Yen, an 11-year low that was hit earlier in the year.

Markets are worried that Spain will be left with no choice but to seek help from the E.U./IMF/ECB troika, despite assertions by the Spanish government that they do not want outside help. Greek elections are also providing investors with another thing to worry about; a newly released poll shows that the divided factions, one for and the other against austerity, are now neck-and-neck; an earlier poll had shown that conservative sentiment, pro-austerity, was dominant.

US Consumer Data Disappoints

US Consumer Data Disappoints

By: DailyForex.com

The domestic market in America accounts for something like 70% of the nation’s economic output. Whilst international trade is vital for the USA, it is domestic demand which is the engine of growth in the world’s largest economy. Global events are often said to be of lesser importance to the citizens of this continent-sized country, but whilst that may be true to a certain extent at the individual level, it is far from the case on a macro-economic scale.

The dominant global economic event of the moment is, of course, the European sovereign debt crisis which is at a critical phase for determining the fate of Greece within the Euro and whether Spain can continue to meet market rates for servicing its debt. The crisis is contributing to global uncertainty which has seen a slowing of demand around the world.

In an important consumer confidence survey, it has been revealed that sentiment amongst the American public has weakened to its lowest level in eight months in May. The slump is blamed on fears about the global economy, and a weak US stock market. The Consumer Confidence Index dipped to 64.9 from last month’s reading of 68.7 â€" at its nadir during the worst of the global financial crisis, it slumped to an historic low of 25.3 (February 2009). Analysts had expected the index to rise to a level of 70 this month.

The US Dollar
has appreciated by 12.2% against the Euro over the past twelve months and a Euro is currently buying $1.2523. The European sovereign debt crisis is forcing the Euro lower as speculation about its membership and very continuation pervades, but frankly, it is “too big to fail”, to coin a phrase. The silver lining to this particular cloud is that it does make Eurozone exports more competitive in importing markets which is a good thing for European manufacturers.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook May 31, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook May 31, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The AUD/USD has been a pair that has been absolutely beaten up over the last several weeks. It was just a couple of months ago that it was trading at the 1.08 level, and the fall has been stunning up until this point. The pair is suffering because of the rest of the world, not anything out of Oz itself. Because of this, Aussie bulls must be frustrated to say the least.

The Aussie will often be used by the Forex community in order to make a play on the Chinese economic situation, and as a result â€" when trouble is found on the mainland, the Aussie falls. With the European situation killing demand out of that area, China suddenly finds out that its biggest customer is flat broke. With that being said, there is much less demand for Chinese goods, and this in turn means there is less demand for raw materials out of Australia.

The fall has been stunning, but quite frankly the European situation is only getting worse at this point. Because of this, there is a real chance this pair falls even further. The recent area that the pair trades in at the moment would be a complete round trip since the move up in November 2011. This is a very bearish sign, and a break lower, below the 0.97 level â€" has this pair falling to 0.90 before it is all said and done.

0.9650 is crucial

The 0.9650 level is absolutely crucial at this point. If it gives way, look out below. The pair looks like a perfect place to express a run to the Dollar, and while the Euro has been getting all of the attention, the Aussie has been a cleaner play on the Dollar. There is little to suggest that this is going to change anytime soon.

AUDUSD Daily 53112

I am selling all rallies in this pair until we are above the 1.02 level. The breaking to new lows will also have me selling as this pair simply cannot find its footing. I am looking to add all the way down as well, as this could be a massive move still waiting to happen.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook May 31, 2012

GBP/USD Daily Outlook May 31, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The cable has been flittering around the 1.5650 level for a while now. Finally, on Wednesday we saw it give way. The move over the last several weeks has been brutal, but the truth is that the Dollar is the most wanted currency at the moment, and it makes sense that a currency like the Pound that is so highly attached to the European Union should be sold in favor of the Greenback Quite frankly, until the situation calms down in Europe, the Pound will suffer as a result of the EU being such a big market for British firms.

The 1.5650 level was one that I thought was fairly obvious. I also thought that the 1.55 level would be significant as well. It is telling that both of these levels were overcome in one move, and this shouldn’t leave much of a doubt as to where the momentum is heading. The bearishness is simply amazing.

1.53 is next

The next support level that I see is the 1.53 level in this market. The level is a strong one, and a bounce could be coming from that level. After all, the UK isn’t the European Union, and as a result it shouldn’t be as bad as the region. After all, the Brits have a chance to make one choice, not 17 countries trying to get to come kind of consensus. The market will continue to struggle going forward, and the rallies will fail as the “risk off” attitude continues in the global markets. As of this point in time, there is little to suggest that the economy is suddenly going to turn around.

GBPUSD Daily 53112

The pair could have sudden pops on rumors and announcements, but the situation in Europe is going to take years to put back together, and as a result the Brits will muddle along in the process. The pair will provide plenty of selling opportunities on rallies and fresh lows. While I cannot call for it right away, I think 1.53 gives way eventually â€" and we go much lower over the next several months.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 31, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 31, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD continues to line the pockets of the bears. It is astonishing to me that there are still people out there that think the bearishness in this pair is exaggerated, that somehow the European Union is going to wave magic pixie dust on the problems and suddenly the banks in Portugal, Spain, Greece, and Ireland are going to be strong. Somehow the debt issues will simply go away or that after centuries of conflict between each other, the member states are happy to take on pain for the irresponsibility of others. Anyone who thinks the Euro is going to work out in its current form must know nothing about human nature.

Will the Euro survive? I don’t know. I doubt it. Or maybe I should say that I doubt it will in its current form. There are far too many problems for many of the poorer countries that are involved. I recently read an interesting article about how the Greek tourism industry has been shafted by the higher valued Euro. Making matters worse, a lot of tourism seems to be going to their old nemesis, the Turks. I know that when Greece moves to the Drachma, it will bring a lot of North American and European travelers. I would love to see Athens myself.

1.25 is gone

The 1.25 level has given way, and the market is now sub-1.24 as I write this. This shows just how heavy the market really was when we formed the three shooting stars in a row just above the 1.25 level. I warned that it was a significantly bearish set up, and we have now seen the fruits of that attempt to break things down.

EURUSD Daily 53112

Looking forward, I think the 1.21 area is probably where we are heading at this point. The rallies would be sold by me going forward, and I am willing to add to my short positions as well. I think this move is almost a given at this point. As for buying â€" I simply cannot fathom doing that at this point as the situation is so bad.

Q3 2012 Forex Forecast

Q3 2012 Forex Forecast

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/USD

The easiest thing in the world is to predict that the EUR/USD pair will be lower at the end of the quarter. It is because of this that a lot of people will be tempted to say that a reversal is coming. However, there simply isn’t a reason to think that the Euro is going to suddenly be a bastion of string. The pair will probably get a bounce at one point or another, but by now it should be obvious that the problems in Europe are structural, and those kinds of problems take a lot of work to fix. I suspect this pair will rally at one point or another â€" and I will be selling. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1.20 before it is all said and done.

AUD/USD

The Aussie has the misfortune of being highly correlated to risk globally. The economy is highly influenced by the Chinese economy, and that one is slowing. (Albeit from a high level of growth.) None the less, this should continue to weigh on the Aussie as well. The RBA is probably going to cut at least once during the quarter, and the Aussie will fall. However, this currency will be stronger than a lot of other “risky” ones as Australia is a strong economy overall.

USD/JPY

This is by far the most difficult pair to predict. The 80 handle will be a place that determines the future of this pair, and although we have seen weakness lately, the Bank of Japan will get involved sooner or later. The reason for the fall predicates on the idea that the Fed could ease again. It is because of this that the Non-Farm Payroll numbers will be the main driver of this pair. If the numbers are consistently good, the Fed won’t be bothered with more QE, and this will push this pair higher. This is what I suspect will happen, but watching that economic indicator will be vital.

GBP/USD

The UK has a serious problem. It is much like being in a neighborhood that has a lot of criminals move in â€" you may not be doing anything directly to bring down the value of the neighborhood, but you are suffering none the less. This is how the UK looks to me at the moment. The European Union is the destination of 40% of the UK’s exports, and this will weigh on the British economy. With global risk being high, I would suspect that the cable pair slips over time, perhaps to the 1.53 level.

USD/CAD

Oil markets are giving way as I write this article, but it is obvious that the 1.03 level is important. The move straight up in late Q2 should have been seen as a shot across the bow. The pair should be higher by the end of the quarter, and I am a buyer overall. I think we could see as high as 1.07 before ht end of Q3.

DailyForex Signal Update May 31, 2012

DailyForex Signal Update May 31, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

We’ve been providing free Forex signals for quite some time now, but oftentimes traders want to know how the signals fared â€" here’s our first retrospective on the signals that Alp, the newest member of our trading team, provided this week. Check out his results, and let us know how you did!

AUD/CAD: Hit stop-loss
AUD/USD: Hit profit target
USD/CAD: Hit profit target
GBP/AUD: Closed now @1.5910 with profit, closed before it hit target due to lack performance.
EUR/CHF: Still open

Looking for more free Forex trading signals? Check out today’s EUR/USD signal from Fadi Steitie or follow us on Facebook and Twitter to ensure that you get the latest free signals directly to your desktop.

Rabu, 30 Mei 2012

An Introduction to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

An Introduction to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

By: DailyForex.com

Developed in the mid-20th century by Goichi Hosada, a Japanese journalist, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo formula for market charting was actually introduced to the public in 1968 after years of testing done by Hosada and his students. Upon release, the indicator wasn’t entirely popular, and it was limited mostly to usage throughout Japan and other pockets of Asia. The indicator was only popularized on the global scale in the past decade, since traders worldwide have taken a renewed interest in the notable success of the system. In addition to being a popular Forex indicator, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is also used for trading commodities, stocks and futures.

Translated literally, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo means “Equilibrium Chart as a Glance,” and the system uses five distinct components to create a full picture of how the market is trending. Each component of the system is not meant to be used individually, but to be considered as part of the whole view of the market and the instrument being analyzed. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo works best at the daily and weekly intervals, and its components include:

Tenkan Sen â€" literally, ‘the turning line’, this is the highest high+lowest low divided by 2 for the last # of time periods being analyzed (ex- 9 periods)

Kijun Sen â€" Japanese for the ‘the standard line’, this is the highest high+lowest low divided by 2 for a second, longer time interval (ex- 26 periods)

Chikou Span â€" translated as the ‘lagging line’, this is the value of the closing price over the same time period as the Kijun Sen

Senkou Span A â€" this ‘first leading line’ is the tankan sen+kijun sen divided by 2, looking at a longer interval into the future (ex â€" 26 time periods forward)

Senkou Span B â€" the ‘second leading line’ is the highest high+lowest low divided by two for a time span that is double the kijun sen into the future (ex â€" 52 time periods forward)

Sound confusing? Perhaps this is why it took so long for Ichimoku Kinko Hyo to catch on. But with a bit of patience, you too can learn to understand this helpful Forex indicator.

Consider this:

If the price of a pair is higher than the kijun sen, the prices will likely continue rising. When the price crosses the kijun sen, chances are good that the trend will begin to shift in the opposite direction.

Many people who follow Ichimoku Kinko Hyo believe that you can get signals from the kijun sen. A buy signal would occur when the tenkan sen crosses the kijun sen in the bottom-up direction. If the signals cross in the top-down direction, a trader would opt to sell.

Tenkan sen can also be used to measure a channel if the indicator is found horizontally on the chart.

Future articles in this series about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo which will discuss more of these topics in detail. But, if you have any specific questions please leave them as comments below and our expert traders will answer them for you!

Spanish Woes Keep Pressure on Euro

Spanish Woes Keep Pressure on Euro

By: DailyForex.com

The Euro struck a new 2-year low in Asian trading as investors’ concerns over rising borrowing costs for Spanish debt, and indeed, the Spanish banking system, are weighing significantly. The yield on a 10-year bond rose to a 6-month peak yesterday, and the Spanish sovereign debt sell-off has driven up by 5 basis points the spread differential between Spanish and German debt.

As reported at 2:11 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Euro was trading at $1.2467, a decline of 0.3% from late trading in New York; the EUR/USD pair had earlier fallen to $1.24572 on the EBS trading platform. A failure to once again break through resistance at $1.2625 is keeping the Euro-Dollar vulnerable to further declines. The common currency dipped even further against the Japanese Yen, dropping 0.4% to trade at 99.03 Yen, not far from the 4-month low struck yesterday.

Commodity-linked currencies in general continue to decline; the Aussie Dollar slipped 0.5% against the U.S. Dollar to $0.9790, just off the 6-month low of $0.6960 struck just last week. Earlier today, it was reported that retail sales in Australia fell below expectations, giving rise to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to lower interest rates to shore up the flagging economy.

Spanish Yields Rise

Spanish Yields Rise

By: DailyForex.com

Spain’s woes stem from the bursting of a property bubble during the global financial crisis which left banks with huge piles of bad debts; properties which were worth a fraction of the book price; stalled building projects and constipation in the housing sector. Spain had a balanced budget with no deficit prior to the global financial crisis, but Spaniards took advantage of cheap loans which became available when Spain joined the Euro. The upshot of this was that between 2004 and 2008, property prices spiked 44%. In the aftermath of the bubble bursting, prices have slumped by 25% generating lots of bad debts.

Spain has far and away the worst unemployment situation in the EU with almost a quarter of the workforce idle. This has meant that Spain has had to borrow to cover social security costs against a backdrop of falling tax revenues. This leaves the country highly exposed to changes in yield on its bonds â€" a dangerous situation when markets are anticipating that Europe’s fifth largest economy could be the fourth nation requiring a bailout: a proposition strenuously denied by the government of course.

At the weekend, Bankia had to ask the state for €19 billion. The bank was formed through a merger of troubled banks and has seen its share value fall by a third this week, but struggled back to a loss of 17%. The premium on Spanish 10 year bonds compared to their German counterparts now stands at a record 5.05%.

With uncertainty over the future of Greece in the Euro, leaders need to make a clear and unambiguous move to support reasonable borrowing costs at the state level in Europe. This could be achieved by making Eurobonds a reality which would be a high quality, low yield investment vehicle, but Germany is opposed to such a move. Alternatively, the ECB may need to intercede in the sovereign bond markets to ensure demand is sufficiently high to moderate yields. However, until the uncertainty about the Greek situation is resolved, any initiative is likely to be ineffective.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 30, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 30, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The Forex markets tend to consolidate for long periods of time, only to be followed by sudden moves. It is the latter of the two possibilities that we have been in for some time, and these are the times that the best gains are to be found. For full disclosure, I should go ahead and say that I haven’t bought the EUR/USD in months. I haven’t always been in the market, but I haven’t been long at all.

The fact is that there has been a seemingly never ending barrage of bad news out of the continent, and one has to wonder what would have happened if all of this nonsense had been going on with the South African rand, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, or other such currencies. The fact is that the Euro has a bit of an ingrained bid in it with Forex markets, so there is almost always someone willing to buy.

The fall recently has been stunning, but truth be known the 1.30 level held much longer than I expected. Once the level finally gave way, we finally found the 1.25 level that I had been calling for, based upon a descending triangle.

1.25 violated

The Tuesday session saw the 1.25 level violated, but a real “flush” hasn’t been had yet. However, I think this shows just how weak this pair is at the moment, and the now four in a row shooting stars on the daily chart show a relentless pursuit of the downside by the markets. One really has to wonder how much longer the bulls (yes, I am looking at YOU People’s Bank of China…) can fight this freight train of a move.

EURUSD Daily 53012

I believe that bounces can happen, but they will simply continue to be gifts from the market. Every time I see one, I look at it as a chance to sell Euros from higher levels. I will continue to fade rallies until some kind of solution appears out of Europe. At this rate, that could be a long time from now. I will also sell on a break of the bottom of the Tuesday session.

Mid-Week Summary: May 28-June 1

Mid-Week Summary: May 28-June 1

By: Nikoletta Panteli

EUR/USD

The Euro weakened at the start of the new week against the US dollar on heightened risk aversion in the market. The pair opened at 1.2565, rose to 1.2624 and later traded near two-year lows, falling to 1.2509 (a 0.9% decline). Investors are worried about the escalating problems in Spain’s banking sector while Spanish borrowing costs remained elevated. Fears that Spain will be the next country to seek financial help from the International Monetary Fund weighed on sentiment in the market after Spain’s fourth-largest lender Bankia asked for a 19 billion euro bailout. The risk of contagion to other eurozone countries remains high and eyes are now turning to the repeat election in Greece on 17 June. The health of the global economy remains a concern but talks that China may unveil additional spending measures to support growth gave equities and commodities a boost. In Greece, the latest polls showed that Greece’s New Democracy party was ahead of Syriza, easing concern s that a Syriza victory could lead to a Greek exit from the euro. The focus now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls from the US which will show the pace of recovery in the world’s largest economy. The US manufacturing index and gross domestic product figures are also expected this week.

GBP/USD

The British pound plummeted against the US dollar at the start of this week. The pair opened at 1.5679 and dropped as low as 1.5655. The political deadlock in Greece and the deepening problems of the Spanish banking sector weighed on sterling and boosted investors’ appetite for the safe haven dollar. But sterling remains fragile as investors expect the Bank of England to decide on additional quantitative easing to support the UK economy. The GDP revised figure disappointed investors after it came out worse than expected and recent economic figures showed more signs of slowing economic activity. Attention now shifts to the UK housing prices and consumer confidence data.

EUR/JPY

The single currency plummeted versus the Japanese yen this week, weighed by political uncertainty in the eurozone. Investors are concerned about a messy Greek default and exit from the euro while the yen attracts safe haven demand as uncertainty in the markets is heightened. The pair opened at 100.04 this week and slid as low as 99.50, a 0.5% decline. Industrial production and housing stats from Japan may give a picture of the economic conditions in the country.

EUR/GBP

The single currency edged lower against the British pound today, falling to 0.7982 on Monday after the pair opened at 0.8013. Sterling appears strong supported by its safe haven status as UK triple-A rated government bonds attract increasing demand while the eurozone is suffering from stagnation in economic growth. The focus remains on the eurozone periphery countries such as Spain, and fears of eurozone debt contagion weigh on the single currency.

USD/CHF

The greenback rose against the Swiss franc this week. The pair opened at 0.9562 and dropped to 0.9528 but later climbed as high as 0.9606. Deflation continues to be a threat for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) putting pressure on it to intervene in the currency markets in order to weaken the franc. The SNB set a floor at 1.20 in September for the euro versus the Swiss franc in order to protect its exports. The Swiss economy has managed to escape economic contraction and economic growth of 1% is expected for 2012.

USD/CAD Signal

USD/CAD Signal

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: USD/CAD
Trend Expected Direction: UP
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: USD/CAD bounced off of the kumo and now heading towards last week’s high on 1.0307.
Recommendation: Long
Target Area: 1.0300
Stop-Loss: 1.0200

USDCAD signal 53012

AUD/USD Signal- May 30, 2012

AUD/USD Signal- May 30, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: AUD/USD
Trend Expected Direction: DOWN
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: AUD/USD failed to break 0.9850 resistance and turned south again. Price is back below kumo. H4 chart suggests that the price may head to support level at 0.9750 and then 0.9700.
Recommendation: Short
Target Area: 0.9725
Stop-Loss: 0.9810

AUDUSD Signal 53012

Successful Trades on May 30, 2012

Successful Trades on May 30, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

EUR/USD

According to Christopher Lewis analysis of the EUR/USD, the pair is on a bearish path. That creates an opportunity in the following instruments: “Low, ”Touch Down”, No Touch” and “Below”. I logged in the optionFair™ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,000 on the “Touch Down” instrument.

This kind of option has a return of 77% if the option hits the strike price prior to expiry, meaning that if the signal is correct I could get a return of $770 on my investment. The market price for EUR/USD at the buying time (11:40) was 1.24552 and the target price was 1.24490 for the expiry of 12:00. The pair touched the strike price at 11:48 so I earned $770 in 8 minutes!

GBP/USD

According to Christopher Lewis’s analysis of the GBP/USD, the pair is heading down. That creates an investment opportunity on the following instruments: “Low”, “Touch- Down” and “No Touch”. I logged in the optionFair™ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,000 on the “Low” instrument.

This kind of option has a return of 85% if the option will expire below the strike price, if the signal is correct I could get a return of $850 on my investment. The market price for GBP/USD at the buying time (11:13) was 1.55780 for the expiry of 11:30. The pair expired at the price of 1.55754 and I won my position!

Selasa, 29 Mei 2012

Euro Feeling the Heat from Spain

Euro Feeling the Heat from Spain

By: DailyForex.com

Even as Greek worries take a backstage, investor concerns over Spain’s banking system are keeping the Euro close to a 2-year low versus the U.S. Dollar, as yields at the most recent Spanish debt auction rose to near 6.5% for 10-year benchmark debt, edging closer to the 7.0% threshold which analysts consider unsustainable over the long term. That is also the point at which Ireland, Portugal and Greece were compelled to request a bailout from the E.U./IMF. Notably, the spread between Spanish and German 10-year debt has now risen to 515 basis points, a margin not seen since the Euro’s inception, which is also raising fears that Spain, the 4th largest economy in the Eurozone, will also succumb to the debt crisis.

As reported at 12:42 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.2526, close to the 2-year trough of $1.2495 struck last week; the nearest support is at $1.25. Against the Japanese Yen, the Euro traded at 99.68 Yen, just off the 4-month trough struck last week when the EUR/JPY pair hit 99.37 Yen.

Markets are also wary ahead of an Irish referendum on the E.U. fiscal treaty; while analysts expect that voters will grudgingly agree to the treaty, there is still some concern that a vote against the referendum could undermine the E.U.’s efforts.

USD/SGD Signal

USD/SGD Signal

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: USD/SGD
Trend Expected Direction: Down
Method: Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Levels
Description:A break in fifth wave strength followed by a flat correction that broke the upward support level with its third wave c to form primary wave (A) corrected be wave (B) with 0.786 Fibonacci level, I do expect a further drop in the primary correction to complete the last leg wave (C).
Recommendation: Sell
Target Area: 1.2700
Stop Loss: 1.28250


EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 29, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 29, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD pair continues to be the gift that keeps giving. By now, it should be absolutely obvious to you that the pair is to be sold, not bought. However, a lot of new traders hand money over to more experienced traders by going long a pair that is “obviously oversold”. This pair is a great example of when a pair is oversold, you just don’t sell…..but that doesn’t mean you have to buy. Think of it this way: If the pair is falling, would you rather catch a small bounce to make a few Dollars, or would you rather wait for the bounce to rejoin the trend and make a much larger profit?

The pair got a bit of a lift over the weekend by what else but rumors. The latest is that the Europeans are coming up with some kind of scheme to form a fund to bailout banks. This got the bullish traders long, and many of the weaker players out of their short trades. However, by the very fact that a bailout is needed suggests that there will be some form of easing, and this means a lower Euro.

1.25 is still crucial

The 1.25 level still looks very crucial, and the fact that the candle for the Monday session is a shooting star for the third day in a row suggests that it will be attacked yet again, and eventually broken through. The level is crucial for the bearish trend to continue, and we think that eventually the bears will overrun the support. If and when this happens, the 1.20 level should be the next target.

EURUSD Daily 52912

Granted, there is always some kind of “hopium” trade out there for the Euro, and this will lend itself to produce pops in this pair from time to time, but the reality is that Europe is a problem that will more than likely be around for a few years. Eventually, the conclusion of the drama will happen, but it appears that we are much closer to the start than the end. I am selling the Euro, and never buying it. A daily close below 1.25 has me selling. A rally with any signs of weakness has me doing the same.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook May 29, 2012

GBP/USD Daily Outlook May 29, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The GBP/USD pair looks absolutely horrible. The action in this market has been straight down for several weeks, and there seems to be no real let up in it. The gap from the weekend was based upon the rumors of a European bailout fund for banks, but there is no confirmation of this rumor. This lead to a weakening of this market yet again and the daily candle for Monday is now a shooting star.

The candle suggests that the pair is looking even weaker that I thought, and the fact that the bulls couldn’t even stage a real bounce at this point really has me thinking this pair has a much longer way to fall. The Pound is going to suffer because of the United Kingdom’s large amount of exports to the European Union. With the EU going into recession, this means that 40% of the UK’s exports are heading towards a broke customer.

61.8%, 1.5650, and massive support

The 1.5650 level is an obvious support level at this moment, and you can see how it has held for some time now. This is what makes the fact that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level there so interesting to me. Quite frankly, if there was ever a place that a bounce could be expected â€" this is it. However, the action hasn’t been very impressive, and because of this I have to think that this pair is about to do a nose dive.

However, the confirmation hasn’t happened yet. This keeps me from shorting this pair at the moment, but in a moment of panic via the European situation, we will see massive amounts of flows into the Dollar. In this scenario â€" the Pound will get hammered as the floodgates could open.

GBPUSD Daily 52912

The breaking of the 1.5650 level on a daily close will signal another run lower with targets of both 1.55 and 1.53 in the near term. The pair could fall even farther, but I have to think that eventually the Pound will be a bargain that traders want to own. On a close below the 1.5650 level I am selling and holding until at least 1.55 as the weakness could send us there in a single session, and if this happens â€" 1.53 could be had in a flash as well. I am also selling rallies at this point.

High On Hopes Of Greek Pragmatism

High On Hopes Of Greek Pragmatism

By: DailyForex.com

At the weekend, a series of Greek opinion polls showed that the pro-bailout conservative party, New Democracy, had gained an advantage over the left-wing Syriza party. Syriza, whilst remaining in favour of Greece continuing in the Euro, has taken the populist position that the terms of the second bailout must be renegotiated. They want the austerity measures which were associated with it to be torn-up; a position which both the IMF and the EC find completely unacceptable. The Germans have also made it clear that for Greece to remain in the Euro, it must honour its obligations under the two bailouts.

According to Reuters, the margin of New Democracy’s lead is anywhere between 0.5 and 5.7%. The election will be held on 17th of June and until now; opinion polls had shown the major parties running neck-a-neck between those supporting continued austerity and those opposing it. The international community is making it clear to Greece that everybody wants to see the nation stay in the Eurozone â€" but the subtext is very clearly that a vote to abandon the bailout deals is a de facto vote to leave the bloc. Even the UK which is outside the Euro, has put its oar in the water with the government drawing up plans for a potential break-up of the Eurozone and measures to hold back a flood-tide of Greek economic migrants turning up on Britain’s shores to open huge numbers of kebab shops (one assumes). Whilst the Treaty of Rome ensures the rights of EU citizens to work freely anywhere within the Union, this piece of political theatre is quite absurd. Not to be outdone, Lloyds of London also announced that it was making contingency plans to deal with a Eurozone break-up whilst stressing that it did not believe that such an event would occur.

In principal, Greeks are faced with a choice between pain and financial Armageddon. The opinion polls at the weekend seem to suggest that sanity will prevail. If that happens, it will become politically expedient for all concerned to find a way of tempering austerity such that deficits can be reduced, but employment and growth will not be sacrificed. The news was enough to see European markets open about 1% higher on Monday. However, the optimism did not last because of on-going concerns over Spain’s debt problems which saw the differential between German and Spanish bonds hit a new record.

Loonie Showing Strength

Loonie Showing Strength

By: DailyForex.com

The Loonie has been steadily shrinking in value against the US Dollar since hitting a 6 month high in April. The pair finally broke resistance at 1.003 on March 15th and climbed as high as 1.0311 last week. Now we see the Loonie powering up to possible make a comeback. In order to do this however, it will need to break the low set yesterday at 1.02226 and most importantly, the support level of 1.0191 which coincides with the 13 EMA and the 23.6% retracement level. The next hurdle will be the Monthly R2, a long standing support level at 1.0159. From an Intraday trading perspective, look for support at 1.02152 and 1.0205 and resistance at 1.0243, 1.0263 and the Monthly R3 at 1.0267. The pair, along with many others, is prime for a retracement and could see that happen this week. I am cautiously Bearish on this pair below 1.0220 but overall expect the pair to trade as high as 1.04 soon, possibly within the next few days if the retracement does not continue. < /span>


NZD/USD Daily Outlook May 29, 2012

NZD/USD Daily Outlook May 29, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The NZD/USD pair is one of the most favored commodity currencies for me. The average trader tends to favor the Aussie, and while I certainly trade that currency, the Kiwi can give you much more of a “bang for your buck.” This pair produces much larger moves than the AUD/USD pair under most conditions, and as a result you will find that if both pairs are moving in the same direction â€" which they typically do â€" the NZD/USD almost always is the more profitable trade.

The Kiwis are currently suffering at the hands of the rest of us. This country has a major infrastructure rebuild going on after the earthquakes, but the rest of the world is struggling, and this hurts exports out of this nation. While the main exports are agricultural based, the Kiwi dollar tends to follow the overall “attitude” of the futures markets, and is a victim of the same problems as the Aussie and Loonie in that respect. The slowdown in China is working against the Kiwi at the moment, although they don’t send the copper and other raw materials that nation uses for production.

0.75 matters

The gap from the weekend was a rumor fueled move when it started to make rounds that the Europeans were secretly working on a bailout program for the banks on that continent. This of course didn’t get confirmed, and a lot of the rally got turned back as a result. In fact the candle for the session on Monday is a shooting star that is situation at the 0.76 level. The 0.75 level below is obvious support, but the market looks poised to attack at this point. The breaking of this level would signal another push lower as the levee would break at this point.

NZDUSD Daily 52912

The breaking of this level has the market looking for 0.70 eventually, and with all of the headline risks out there, this pair could find it relatively quick. I am selling rallies in this pair and a daily close below the above mentioned 0.75 handle as I believe it would be a serious sign of weakness, yet again.

Senin, 28 Mei 2012

Mini Euro Rally Likely to Fizzle

Mini Euro Rally Likely to Fizzle

By: DailyForex.com

A recently conducted poll in Greece is giving rise to new found hope that the country may as yet pull off a miracle and agree on the austerity measures which will allow them to stay in the Eurozone. That poll outcome is helping to give a small lift to the Euro against the U.S. Dollar, which earlier bounced off of a 2-year low. As reported at 11:57 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo the Euro was trading at $1.2575, a gain of 0.5% and off of Friday’s trough of $1.2495, a level not seen in almost two years.

If the poll results are actualized that would suggest that conservatives could eke out an election win. That would raise the probability that Greece will be able to form a coalition government which ultimately would work within the existing parameters of the E.U./IMF bailout terms. Regardless of that outcome, however, the Euro remains under pressure as ongoing worries of a lack of growth continue to weigh, as does the fragile situation in the Spanish banking sector. Most analysts expect that the Euro’s rally, driven primarily by short-covering investors, will be relatively small and short-lived, and even getting to $1.26 will be a challenge.

Forex Week in Review- May 28, 2012

Forex Week in Review- May 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Last week was saw markets continue to react nervously to the Greek situation, but most of the majors ended higher. Volatility will continue until a new government is elected and has made its decisions clear with respect to austerity accords and its future in the Euro.

In Europe over the course of the week, the FTSE was up by 1.6%, it closed at 5351.5; the Dax ended the week at 6339.9, rising by 1.1% over the week; the CAC was up by 1.3% to end the session at 3047.9.

The Dow ended the week higher to the tune of 0.47 % at 12454.8. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week at 2837.5 making 2.1% over the course of the week.

The Nikkei closed down over the course of the week’s trading, falling 0.36% to end the trading session at 8580.4; it was the only major market to lose ground.

Currency Markets Review

On the currency markets last week, the Dollar saw the best of trading. The Dollar was stronger against Sterling, making 0.9% and closing at 1.56766 to the Pound; it made 3.1% over the month. The Greenback was also stronger against the Euro last week, rising by 1.4% to close at 1.2721; a rise of 4.5% over the course of May. The Dollar made ground against the Japanese currency, closing at 79.5471 to the Yen, a gain of 0.24% on the week, but it weakened by 0.9% over the month.

The Euro weakened against the Yen ending at 99.8, a fall of 1.1% over the course of the week and a decline of 5.3% over the month. The Euro was weaker against Sterling over the course of the week, falling by 0.49%; the close saw one £ buying 1.24953, it lost 1.5% over the month.

Commodities Market Review

On the commodities market, the price for Brent crude ended lower, closing at $106.8 per barrel (for July delivery); a fall of 0.29% over the course of the week’s trading and of 5.6% over the month. The value of gold was lower last week, closing at $1569.5 per ounce, representing a loss of 1.3% over last week’s value; it ends the month down by 4.5%.

GBP/AUD Signal May 28, 2012

GBP/AUD Signal May 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: GBP/AUD
Trend Expected Direction: DOWN
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: GBP/AUD broke the wedge formation which has been developing on H4 chart. The pair has been bullish since February 15 but the price action over the last 2 weeks shows that the pair is struggling to pass 1.6175. H4 chart suggests that the price may head to %23.6 Fibonacci retracement level.
Recommendation: Short
Target Area: 1.5803
Stop-Loss: 1.6018

GBPAUD Signal 52812

USD/CAD Daily Outlook May 28, 2012

USD/CAD Daily Outlook May 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The USD/CAD pair has been a straight shot up lately, and this will have caught many traders by surprise. It really shouldn’t though, as if you look at it historically â€" it likes to do just this. It will sit for a while, and then suddenly shoot in one direction.

The interconnectedness of the two economies is partial to blame for the tight trading most of the time. However, over the weekend we had reports that the Iranians decided to be difficult in the talk about nuclear weapons again, so there is a possibility that oil gets a bid on Monday. However, the overall global demand isn’t that strong, and in the end this will trump all. If the oil markets pop, then we could see the overextended market pullback at this level. Quite frankly, it could use it at this point.

1.03

This 1.03 level is a major one for my money. It is a place where we can see serious resistance, and the fact that we have ran so far so long is going to have me waiting to see if the market can close above the 1.03 level in order to buy from. A break above and ability to close there would be a bullish sign indeed.

The pair does however; look more than likely to pullback. If it does, I see a lot of support between the parity and 1.01 levels, and would gladly buy supportive looking candles in that area as well. I am not prepared to short this pair under any circumstances because of the commodity correlations with the Canadian dollar. This isn’t to say that the Canadian economy is doing poorly â€" far from it. But I do know how Forex traders look at the Loonie, and the whole “Com Doll” aspect is one that they won’t look past.

USDCAD Daily 52812

It isn’t until we close under the parity level that I can only see some kind of rethink about this pair. It was from that area that we broke out so violently, and it would have to be completely retaken for me to see this pair any differently.

NZD/JPY Daily Outlook May 28, 2012

NZD/JPY Daily Outlook May 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The NZD/JPY pair is one of my favorites to play when it comes to a global risk appetite inspired trade. Many traders will look to the AUD/USD, and sometimes even the AUD/JPY, but the Kiwi gets little love from them because most simply think it far too illiquid to trade. This in fact, is by far its biggest advantage.

Granted, I don’t trade the NZD/JPY pair for fun, nor do I do it on a regular basis. However, the pair isn’t really much different than other ones, just that it tends to move a bit more. This can be compensated for by cutting down position sizes, or tightening stops if you are truly confident in the next move.

When the global markets are nervous, this pair absolutely falls apart. I have to admit that most of the time I short this pair when I trade it, simply because it is the easiest way to see a return â€" short this pair on seriously bad news. You can see that lately, this pair has fallen off of a cliff, as we have lost a little over 6 handles in the last month. The bad news out of Europe is most certainly to blame for a lot of it, and as a result I think it is pretty obvious about what the trend in this pair is now.

60

The 60 handle looks to be a significant one, and the round number certainly will attract traders as well. The candle for the Friday session ended up being a shooting star, and this suggests that the bearish pressure remains. If this level gives way, there is a good chance that we see 55 before it is all said and done in this market.

NZDJPY Daily 52812

The daily close below the 60 handle could be used as a signal to short this pair. Obviously, the trend is down so I will only sell the rallies â€" not buy them. The signal to short this pair will more than likely be an obvious news event out of the EU that gets the market riled up again.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 28, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD has been the punching bag lately of Forex traders. This is probably because of how resilient it had been in the face of so many problems. There had been a lot of talk about Asian central banks getting involved at the 1.30 level as they try to protect the assets that they diversified to in order to cut Dollar denominated assets in the last few years.

The 1.30 level giving way gave us a target of 1.25 based upon a large triangle that had been broken. This has been fulfilled, and now we have to decide what happens next. With all of the issues in the European Union, I am sure most of you are aware that the Euro is a currency facing a lot of headwinds. I certainly am trading it that way, and although I see the support at the 1.25 level â€" I refuse to buy this pair because of all of the headline risks out there.

The ratings agencies are starting to get more active as well, as the Spanish have seen several banks downgraded. The nation’s largest bank also had to ask for additional bailouts this past week as well. In a very quiet and deliberate manner, the concerns in Greece are starting to take a firm hold of Spain. If Spain falls, this thing gets ugly fast.

Two shooting stars

The last two sessions are very interesting to me. It is always a negative sign to see a shooting star at the bottom of a downtrend, as it shows just how little the bulls could support the pair. The fact that we now have two that are just sitting on the 1.25 level suggests to me that there are a lot of people pushing down on this pair. This cannot be good.

EURUSD Daily 52812

There is always the possibility that the bounce happens and we break above the top of the two shooting stars. This would be bullish, but with all of the concerns coming out of Europe at the moment, and the world waiting until June 17th for Greek election results I will simply sell the pair at higher levels if it does happen. Alternately, if the pair closes on the daily chart sub-1.25, I am selling aggressively.

Weekly FX Forecast- May 28, 2012

Weekly FX Forecast- May 28, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had an absolutely horrible week for the bulls. The candle for the 5 sessions ended up at the very lows and is also hugging the 1.25 level. This area simply must hold if the bulls are to have any chance. Truthfully, a bounce could happen, but it will more than likely only offer selling opportunities until the June 17th Greek elections. The 1.30 level to the top is going to be the lid on this market for some time.

EURUSD Weekly 52812

AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar had a negative week as well, but managed a bit of a bounce at the 0.97 level. This area has been the top of a serious support zone recently, so a bounce isn’t out of the question. The real problem with this pair going forward is that the Aussie is so highly correlated with global risk and commodity prices. As long as there are fears out of Europe, this is going to be a “sell on the rallies” type of pair. I expect any bounces to run into trouble at parity, and most assuredly at the 1.02 level.

AUDUSD Weekly 52812

GBP/USD

The cable pair had a horrific week as the action was pretty much straight down. As you can see on the attached chart, there is a serious amount of support at the 1.5650 level. This area that we are testing at the moment could decide the next several hundred pips in this market, and a breakdown would send this pair to at least 1.55, and more than likely 1.53 before it is all said and done. The level is also the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the lows, so those traders will be watching this area as well. This pair looks weak, and will be sold by me on rallies, and sold hand over fist if it falls.

GBPUSD Weekly 52812

EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP pair has been pretty much relentless in its fall over the last couple of months. The area that the market is testing at the moment is the 0.80 handle. This area has been a sort of “equilibrium” in this pair historically, and the fact that we are testing the bottom of a hammer form the week before in this area is very interesting indeed. I think any strength in this pair should be sold, but a break of the previous week’s hammer to the downside would have the pair falling hard.

EURGBP Weekly 52812

Jumat, 25 Mei 2012

Euro Wallows as Investors Despair

Euro Wallows as Investors Despair

By: DailyForex.com

The Euro continues to be stuck close to a 2-year low against the U.S. Dollar as investors consider yesterday's German manufacturing data which suggests that not even the Eurozone's economic powerhouse can escape the debt crisis' tendrils. With the last trading day of the week still ahead, the Euro-Dollar has lost almost 2% on the week and could mark the largest 1-week decline since early April; for the month, the pair has lost more than 5%.

As reported at 12:04 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD pair was trading at $1.2525, only a few pips from the $1.2516 struck yesterday which was a low not seen since July 2010. The EUR/JPY pair was trading at 99.90 Yen, recovering from a recently struck 4-month low of 99.37 Yen. Analysts expect that the Euro-Dollar will likely consolidate around the $1.25 level.

As has been the case over many months now, worries over Greece's place in the Eurozone continue to incite market jitters. While previously there had been surreptitious talk of a possible Greek exit, the scenario appears to be on the verge of a real breakout as even E.U. Officials are warning the various sovereign states that they should prepare for just such an eventuality.

The U.S. Dollar meanwhile is the beneficiary of investors' fears; the U.S. Dollar Index has edged up to 82.398 .DXY, a level not seen since September 2010. The USD/JPY pair was also higher, trading at 79.74 Yen, a gain of 0.2%.

A Guide to Common Candlestick Patterns

A Guide to Common Candlestick Patterns

By: DailyForex.com

While there are entire books dedicated to the subject, over time most traders will find that there are only a few candlesticks that they tend to use. The dizzying array of possibilities can often lead to “paralysis by analysis”, and as a result it is difficult for some to discern possible trading opportunities. However, if a trader was to limit the candlesticks used as signals to just a few very widely used ones it allows them to take trades with more confidence as there will also be many other traders using the same signals.

Many traders will come across the idea of “going against the herd” when it comes to trading. Sadly, this is one of those axioms that have gained traction over the years. However, the truth is that you need the rest of the market to move with you if you want to be profitable. Quite often, the best technical setups are the ones that are most obvious. With that in mind, we look at the following candlesticks:

Hammer/Shooting Star

Like many candlesticks, this pattern has a bullish and bearish version. The bullish one is called the hammer as it looks like one. The shooting star takes a little bit more imagination, but it looks a bit like a shooting star, with the tail being visible.

The hammer features a long wick to the downside, but opens and closes at roughly the same level. The opening will see selling into the time period, but in the end the buyers come back and push prices much higher and to the virtually unchanged level. This suggests that the sellers have failed to keep prices down, and that exhaustion may be setting in for the sellers. These are most important when at the end of a downtrend, and can often signal a trend change. (Insert hammer.png)

The shooting star on the other hand is the exact opposite. You will see the open followed by a sharp rise in price. The buyers fail to hold prices higher, and by the end of the session the close is either the same or close to the opening price. When this candlestick appears at the top of an uptrend, this can often signal exhaustion by the buyers, and can signal a trend change.

Shooting Star 52512

Bullish/Bearish Engulfing Candlestick

The engulfing candlestick is simply a candlestick that completely engulfs the previous one. In order to do this, it takes a wild and volatile session. This candle represents a serious struggle that has settled in the favor of one of the sides. It helps if the candle closes within the last 20% of the range in order to show conviction. In other words, in a bearish engulfing candlestick, you want to see it close in the bottom 20% of the range. The candlesticks can often signal that there is a move in the direction of the candlestick coming, as momentum builds and follow through comes along.

Bullish Engulfing 52512

Bearish Engulfing 52512

Doji

The doji is the most common of the candlesticks in this article. A doji simply is a candlestick that is undecided. In a way, the shooting star and hammer are both specialized forms of the simple doji, simple differentiated by the fact they show exhaustion. A true doji however, is simply a candlestick with a range that fails to break in one direction or another. There are many different types of dojis, but in the end they all mean the same thing: indecision. If we get that indecision, it only makes sense that once we move â€" it means something. The idea is when the range is broken to either the upside or downside, the market has suddenly made a decision, and traders will follow that move to push it even farther. In the attached graphic, you can see the doji formed, and then the breakout over the next session signaled a move higher.

Dohj 52512

Aggressive or Patient?

There are different ways traders will play these candlesticks. However, it should be noted that by far the most conservative and careful way is to wait to see where the following candle closes. Some who are more aggressive will place the trade as soon as the candlestick is broken to the upside or down, but as you can see in the doji example above â€" that would have got the trader into a whipsaw situation. By waiting for the close, the trader would have seen that the bullish momentum had built up.

Also of note, as with all things technical analysis related, the higher the timeframe one of these candlesticks appear â€" the more reliable they tend to be. This is of course because there are more trades represented by the candle, and therefore more information.

China Moves To Counter Slowdown

China Moves To Counter Slowdown

By: DailyForex.com

China is the world’s second largest economy after the USA. Unlike the USA, it is still enjoying good growth with a target level for 2012 of 7.5%; its lowest target level since 2004. However, as China seeks to export its goods to the rest of the world, it is not immune to the global slowdown or the doubts clouding the European markets over Greece’s future in the Euro.

The Chinese authorities have pledged action to counter faltering growth. This is likely to involve moves to stimulate private sector investment in the energy, telecommunication and rail transportation sections. China has an enormous potential domestic market, but it struggles to boost home demand. It is probably fair to say that China’s rise to economic super-power status has left many comrades behind. It remains a communist nation which is ideologically opposed to the capitalist way, of course â€" it’s a bit like the Pope declaring himself an atheist but wishing to stay at the helm of the Catholic Church.

The Chinese authorities issued a statement following a cabinet meeting: "Downward pressure on the economy is increasing. We must proactively take policies and measures to expand demand and to create a favourable policy environment for stable and relatively fast economic growth."

The authorities have been trying to prevent a property bubble from bursting and had tightened controls on banks, a move designed to choke off the money supply and so curtail the bubble. Banks had been required to increase the reserve ratio (meaning they had to hold higher levels of liquidity), but it seems likely that this will now be relaxed in a bid to boost growth by making money supply to business easier.

Whilst the Yuan does seem to be linked to the US Dollar with invisible shackles, the relative weakness of the Euro against the Greenback means that Chinese goods are becoming more expensive in the European market place. It begs the question of just how well China would fare if the Yuan was really allowed to float to its true value.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook May 25, 2012

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook May 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Trading the EUR/CHF pair is much like watching paint dry this year. The fact is that the pair simply isn’t moving, and the whole world knows why. I wouldn’t normally talk about the pair in my articles, but the Thursday session saw a massive spike in this pair that will have certainly have a lot of people asking a lot of questions about the pair and what happened.

The main story making rounds in the trading rooms that I am in contact with suggest that the move was based upon a rumor of impending Swiss policy changes. It seems that someone out there started the story that the Swiss were about to implement a major tax on deposits in Swiss banks by foreigners. This would essentially make people pay large sums of money to park money in Switzerland, and this would certainly cause a drain of currency out of the country. It just so happens that the largest amount of deposits comes from Europe, so it makes sense this pair sees the largest move.

Never, and I mean NEVER trade the news

The move was a perfect example of why trading the news in a fractured market is risky at best and foolish in general. The rumor shot this pair up 70 pips, and I can promise you that several traders in the retail world bought at the top. They are now extremely angry and feel cheated. They would have heard the “news” much later than the professionals, and as a result got burnt.

The pair continues to be dead money. There is a small positive swap for being long, so I suppose there could be a trade to be had by going long down here to collect a small amount of swap at the end of the session. In some ways, it can be like a dividend stock in your retirement account. The pair won’t fall below 1.20 anytime soon, mainly because the Swiss National Bank informed everyone months ago that the 1.20 level was the “minimum acceptable exchange rate” of the Franc against the Euro.

EURCHF Daily 52512

The breaking below of that level carries serious risks of intervention, and as such only those who want to lose money short this pair at the moment. The barrier has held firm so far, and there are reports that the SNB has been actively buying in order to defend it. Because of this, there is only one direction in this pair.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook May 25, 2012

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook May 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The GBP/JPY pair is one that a lot of traders fear. In my estimation, the pair truthfully isn’t much different than any other one. The misconception about this pair is stemmed from the fact that it is a slightly less liquid market, so it tends to move a bit quicker than EUR/USD, USD/CHF, or even USD/JPY. However, the mechanics aren’t any different.

The pair is highly risk sensitive, and as the global appetite for risk comes off, this pair will fall rapidly. The pair has recently plunged below the 125 level, but on Thursday formed a hammer just below it. This suggests that the bulls are ready to come into the pair and push prices higher from what I can tell.

The pair is one that can move a couple of hundred pips in a session, so the position size should be kept a bit smaller than other pairs. Once you do this â€" the pair can trade the same basically. This can be a very lucrative pair if you are willing to pay attention to the larger time frames as well, as a pair that moves like this can be very difficult to trade on the smaller time frames like the 15 minute charts as they will be very noisy.

Hammer time!

The hammer on Thursday really couldn’t be placed in a more perfect region on this chart in my opinion. The 1.25 level has been serious support and resistance in the past, and it is a nice obvious large round number to attract a lot of traders. This is exactly where I like to see big, dumb, obvious signals. The more obvious â€" the more of you out there that will join me in order to push prices higher.

GBPJPY Daily 52512

The move more than likely won’t be a trend changing one, but I think a real pop could come from this, as the pair is most definitely oversold. However, if the candle gets broken on the bottom of the range â€" this pair would fall apart and I would sell aggressively. I will be buying on a break of the top of the range for the Thursday session as well.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 25, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD pair has been falling day after day recently, and it was only the 1.25 level that could hold it up. At the end of the session the pair had formed a very bearish candle as the fears out of Europe continue.

The magic word would be “Eurobonds”. If we get this word out of the European leaders, there is a chance that the Euro could rally significantly in the short term. This is because all of the sudden Germany would be backing everyone in the EU, and this would make the periphery suddenly a whole lot more creditworthy. Unfortunately for Germany, it would cause a downgrade on their credit rating. The Germans have been steadfast in standing against the whole idea, as have the Finns and Dutch. There is little chance that the wealthier countries in Europe are going to fall on a financial sword to make the rest better off. This in essence, shows the folly of the whole concept of the Euro.

Shooting star at 1.25

The daily candle for the Thursday session formed a shooting star at the bottom of the recent plunge in this pair, and this is a massively bearish sign. The 1.25 level gives way â€" and we could see a real pile on as far as the bearish pressure in this market. The Euro certainly isn’t going to be a purchase for the faint of heart, and the situation in that region doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon.

Because of the complexities of the problem in the European Union, I simply won’t buy the Euro until it proves itself to me. This means a break above the 1.30 level â€" something that isn’t going to happen for some time. This doesn’t mean I will always be short of it, just that I won’t buy it.

EURUSD Daily 52512

The currently candle suggests that the flood gates could open below the lows for the session. I am throwing in the 1.25 level for good measure. The pair certainly has a lot of headwinds, and as a result, even if we break above the top of the daily range for Thursday, this only suggests that I can sell it at a higher level on weakness.

EUR/USD Signal May 25, 2012

EUR/USD Signal May 25, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: EUR/USD
Trend Expected Direction: Up
Method: Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Levels
Description:With a clear divergence in RSI along with 2.618 Fibonacci golden level at price 1.25300, I would suggest again buying the pair at this support level for getting the most of expecting bounce with a form of correction. I will leave the target open at the moment to offer a range of trade for the pair.
Recommendation: Buy Hold
Target Area: Open
Stop Loss: 1.24800


Kamis, 24 Mei 2012

Pressure High, Euro Retreat Continues

Pressure High, Euro Retreat Continues

By: DailyForex.com

With E.U. leadership offering no more of a solid outcome than a little positive affirmation that Greece should work towards staying in the Eurozone, the pressure on the common currency continues to mount. Markets appear impatient for a resolution, either way, and the Euro’s volatility in the interim will continue to plague investors. As reported at 12:54 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Euro slipped to $1.2575, a loss of 0.1% but edging back up off the 22-month trough of $2.545 struck yesterday. Analysts say that that level should provide some support, with the nearest beyond that at $$1.2500. One Tokyo-based economist believes that markets could see $1.20 before June’s end.

The likelihood of a Greece withdrawal from the Eurozone is increasing by the day, and it has been rumored that other sovereign members of the Eurozone have been cautioned to prepare a contingency plan in the event Greece does leave. Greek politicians have been urged to abide by the terms of the existing bailout plan and stay the course, i.e. maintain the austerity measures. However, that seems unlikely given the political climate there and the strong possibility that the mid-June elections will usher in a new, anti-austerity power.

Japan’s Credit Rating Downgraded

Japan’s Credit Rating Downgraded

By: DailyForex.com

Japan’s currency, the Yen has been seen as a “safe haven” currency as the storm of the global financial recession raged. However, the underlying reasons for this do not stand up to scrutiny; its more a case of in the kingdom of blind men, the one-eyed man is king! Prior to the crisis, Japan had endured years of deflation; a stimulus package designed to stimulate spending had seen the Bank of Japan adopt a near zero percent interest rate policy; the Japanese have a demographic time bomb ticking with an aging population and rising social security costs to name just a few factors.

Probably, the strength of the Yen can be traced back to the Bank of Japan’s zero percent interest rate. Many financial institutions took advantage of the policy to borrow cheaply and lend on the money at a premium. It meant that they could make loans at a very attractive rate of interest compared to local costs. Of course, when the global financial crisis was unleashed, many of these loans were repaid as financial institutions battened down the hatches. The loans had to be repaid in Yen which created a demand for the currency, pushing it higher and making it seem as good a safe haven currency as any in the storm. Before the crisis, the Euro was trading above the 170 Yen mark; at the low tide mark of the European sovereign debt crisis (and I realise I am being dangerously optimistic here…) it was trading at just 97 Yen.

Japan did not emerge from the global crisis unscathed and then had to deal with a devastating earthquake and tsunami. Japan has tried to ease its path through both man-made and natural disasters by pumping money into the economy to stimulate recovery and growth. Japan now has debts which amount to twice its GDP, by far the most indebted developed economy in the world. However, much of this debt is held domestically which means that Japan can continue to raise money on international markets at highly competitive rates.

Fitch’s rating agency has downgraded Japan’s credit rating by two points to A+ from AA stating "The downgrades and negative outlooks reflect growing risks for Japan's sovereign credit profile as a result of high and rising public debt ratios, fiscal consolidation plan looks leisurely relative even to other fiscally-challenged high-income countries, and implementation is subject to political risk."

Japan is trying to bring in reforms to its tax situation and social security costs, but a loss of confidence in the nation’s ability to meet its obligations would send borrowing cost soaring and put the Yen into freefall â€" which would, at least, help its exports.

JPY Still Gaining on USD

JPY Still Gaining on USD

By: DailyForex.com

The Japanese Yen is still holding its own against the US Dollar, possibly one of the few currencies this week that is. Although the Greenback has been attempting to break the descending trend-line on the daily chart, it has been unsuccessful over numerous attempts for the past 2 months. The pair has now retraced to the 61.8% retracement level of the Bullish trend that began on February 2nd of this year and ended at the high of 84.17 6 weeks later...since that day in March the pair has more or less been falling. Once again price has tried to break out and go higher, and once again it makes an attempt on one day then falls right back to its starting point or even lower the following day. If the Greenback can over power the Yen and break (and close) above 80.145, which is the Weekly R1 and 50% retracement level, it might have a chance at turning the tables. If not, the pair will surely re-test the 61.8% level which is acting as support at 79.132 and head for the next prob able reversal zone at 78.65 which offers strong support as the combined Monthly S1 / Weekly S1. At time of writing, the Weekly Pivot at 79.574 is offering up resistance for the pair, and could be the key level to watch for a Bullish break-out.

USDJPY Daily 52412

Happy Pipping!

AUD/USD Daily Outlook May 24, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook May 24, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The AUD/USD pair had a fairly wild day on Wednesday as the markets went between a “risk off” attitude and a “risk on” one. The original fall is simply a continuation of all of the problems in Europe and the potential Chinese slowdown weighing on the Aussie in general.

The 0.97 level has acted as support at the end of the session, and the candle is a massive hammer for the day. This bullish candle sets up an interesting trade on both sides. The buying of the Aussie at the end of the day was predicated upon the idea that the Europeans could possibly come out with a strong announcement and a unified stance against all of the debt problems in that region. However, as history tells us â€" don’t hold your breath.

The level that we touched is one hundred pips above the implied target via the bearish flag a couple of weeks ago. Because of this, we feel that there is probably more to go on the downside before it is all said and done.

Binary trade

The hammer gives us a binary trade set up. By this we mean that the breaking of the top of the candle for the session has us buying as it is a classic buy signal. However, there is a potential resistance area just above, so if we go long â€" it would be a short-term scalp. If we get a breaking of the lows for the session, this would be an invalidated hammer, and this is a massively bearish sign â€" and has us selling aggressively.

AUDUSD Daily 52412

The problems in the European Union are far too complex to think that they are going anywhere soon, and because of this we think the riskier assets like the Aussie will continue to be “sell on the rallies” type of markets. The potential bounce is actually a better play to fade in our opinion if you don’t have a lot of time to watch the markets, and the parity and 1.02 levels should be good resistive places to sell from if we get the right kind of weakness.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook May 24, 2012

USD/CAD Daily Outlook May 24, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The USD/CAD pair shot straight up on the Wednesday session as the “risk off” attitude still remained king. The pair ran into the 1.03 resistance area though, and then promptly fell 60 pips or so. The resulting candle is a shooting star, and as a result there are potential bearish scenarios creeping into the markets at the moment.

However, the move late in the US session had very little to do with Canada or the United States. The market seemed to buy risk or at least cover shorts on riskier currencies at the end of the day on potential good headlines out of the European Union as the leaders close out their meeting in Brussels. However, a lot of this was predicated on the idea that the French and Italians are somehow going to convince the Germans to back Eurobonds, which puts them on the hook for the debts of several broke countries. Not very likely is what I suspect and I thinking this “risk rally” will more than likely be something that will be reversed in relatively short order.

Pullback looks likely

The pair is without a doubt overbought at this point in time. The move has been ferocious, and the 1.03 level was always going to be a resistive hurdle to climb by the bulls. The candle shape is about perfect for the sellers, but the breaking of the bottom of this candle isn’t a sell signal for me, rather a sign that a pullback is coming from which to buy.

USDCAD Daily 52412

The 1.02, 1.01, and parity levels all look interesting for long positions on the right candle. The supportive action at these levels will have me buying again as it would be a continuation of the underlying fears of the economic situation in Europe, which for sellers of risk has been the gift that keeps on giving. A break of the top of this shooting star would be a massively bullish sign as well, and I wouldn’t hesitate to buy if that happens as well. As for selling, I am not even thinking about it until we get a close below the parity level.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 24, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook May 24, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD pair fell for much of the session on Wednesday as the concerns over the drama in that region continue to take the headlines. The markets will run to the Dollar as long as the Europeans cannot get it together and judging by recent action â€" this could be a while. However, late in the US session, there was a joint statement by the French and Italian leaders that they were united in their desire for a “Eurobond”, which would be a bond that is backed by the whole European Union. The Spanish were kind enough to lend their support as well.

As I heard this, only two words could come to mind: “wishful thinking.” This essentially means that the broke nations are united in their desire for a handout from the fiscally responsible nations like Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and the like. In other words, this is a lot like your broke neighbors being united that you should cosign for their auto loans if you have great credit. There is a lot of rhetoric coming out of the richer nations that this isn’t going to happen, and as they have the money â€" it won’t. Merkel will not be reelected if she caves in on this, and she knows it.

1.25 tested

Ok, so we didn’t quite hit 1.25, but we came awfully close during the session. The triangle from two weeks ago measured a move down to 1.25, and for my money we have come close enough. At this point, there has been a short covering rally as the European leaders will be announcing the result of their meeting. There is more “hopium” in the markets, and there will more than likely be more disappointment. In other words, I like to fade this rally.

EURUSD Daily 52412

The announcement is more than likely going to be the signal. If there are no recapitalization of the banks, and no Eurobonds â€" this pair falls right back down. There shouldn’t be either, so I am a seller in general as the problems in Europe are far too complex for the leaders to get together. I am looking for the typical “We have agreed to talk later” announcement and a falling of the Euro as a result.

Successful Trades on May 24, 2012

Successful Trades on May 24, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

AUD/USD

According to Christopher Lewis's analysis of the AUD/USD, the pair is going down in the past few days and will continue to stay bearish. That creates an opportunity on the instruments: “Low” and “Touch Down”.

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform traded $1,000 on the "Touch Down" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 70% if the option touches the strike price prior to the expiry, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $700 on my investment.

The market price for the AUD/USD at the buying time (11:45) was 0.97371 and the target price was 0.97302. At 10:50 the market hit my target price and I won $700 in 5 minutes!

USD/CAD

According to Christopher Lewis analysis of the USD/CAD, the pair is going up. That creates an opportunity on the instruments: “High” and “Touch”.
I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,000 on the "High" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 81% if the option closes above the target price, meaning that if the signal is correct I could get a return of $810 on my investment.

The target price for USD/CAD at the buying time (10:46) was 1.02683 for the expiration of 11:15. Even though the market moved in the right direction, I decided to close the position prior the expiration .The market price was 1.02743 and I won $317 in 15 minutes.

Successful Trade on May 24, 2012 USDCAD

Rabu, 23 Mei 2012

Papademos’ Comments Send Euro Lower

Papademos’ Comments Send Euro Lower

By: DailyForex.com

During the Asian trading session, the common currency Euro continued its slide edging near to a 21-month trough as worries over a disorderly Greek exit escalate. Yesterday, the Euro’s rapid decline was brought about by a media report which quoted Lucas Papademos, the former Greek Prime Minister, as saying that the country had no option other than to accept austerity or face a Eurozone exit. One analyst in Singapore likened those comments to “strong poison” which exacerbated the markets’ volatility

As reported at 12:26 .p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Euro was trading against the greenback at $1.2643, only a pip above last week’s low, and approaching the low of $1.2624, which was set in January of this year; a break through this level would bring the EUR/USD pair to a low not seen in nearly 2 years and pave the way to $1.25. More recently, the Euro-Dollar was trading at $1.2677, still a loss of 0.1% from late New York trading.

Conversely, the demand for safe haven currencies accelerated. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to a level not seen in 20 months, and was trading at 81.830 .DXY; the Index Dollar Index represents the greenback’s strength relative to several major currencies (including the Euro) and is generally seen as a good gauge of investor sentiment.