USD/CHF breaks above 0.9765 and reaches multi-month high

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USD/CHF breaks above 0.9765 and reaches multi-month high

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar has finally broken the 0.9765 resistance and it has reached the highest level since December 2010. In a 100 pips bullish movement from 0.9695, the USD/CHF has been rising after the US opening bell to reach fresh 19-month high at 0.9790.

Currently the pair is pricing at 0.9780, 0.90% above today's opening price action. Pair looks "Slightly Bullish" and "Extremely Oversold" according to the FXstreet.com technical studies.

"As 0.9700 barrier has been cleared, price approaches key short-term resistance and our target at 0.9769, 01 June peak", says Slobodan Drvenica, analyst at Windsor Brokers Ltd. "Break here to open fresh bull-phase, as a part of broader uptrend off 0.9041, 01 May low and expose Fib 61.8% of long-term 1.1730/0.7067 descend at 0.9950. Today's close above 0.9700 will be supportive".

AUD/USD falls below 1.0200

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AUD/USD falls below 1.0200

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The aussie continues to lose ground against the dollar, weighed down by the strong risk aversion as stocks and commodities print sharp losses.

AUD/USD recently broke below the 1.0200 support level, and the 200-hour SMA to hit its lowest level in 1 week at 1.0178. Currently, the cross is trading at the 1.0185 zone, recording a 100-pip or 1.0% loss on the day and having entered in negative territory for the week.

"If this risk-off decline extends, the next support for AUD/USD is seen near 1.0125. Here we have a rising trendline as well as a previous resistance pivot to be tested as support", says Fan Yang, analyst at FXTimes. "A hold above this level suggests a further upside risk toward 1.0350-1.0380 where the market will test a previous resistance pivot".

"However if AUD/USD rallies from the trendline but holds below the 1.02-1.0220 area on the way up, it is likely respecting topping formation, and the bearish outlook would strengthen", he adds.

Forex Flash: PBOC rate cut is not a tonic for the markets

Forex Flash: PBOC rate cut is not a tonic for the markets

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Forex Flash: PBOC rate cut is not a tonic for the markets - BBH

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - PBOC rate cut is not a tonic for the markets, according to the BBH analyst team. "As we've noted before, the macro backdrop in China appears to be deteriorating faster than is recognized or desired".

"We have likely entered into a more aggressive phase of the easing process, and while timing of the next move is always pure guesswork, we would not be surprised to see PBOC easing of one form or another on a monthly basis in Q3 and Q4", they add. "Data deluge begins next week in China, with most likely to show continued softness that would explain this week's rate cut".

EUR/GBP steadies at multi-year lows

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EUR/GBP steadies at multi-year lows

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The EUR/GBP cross remains weighted this Friday in North America, now consolidating in the 0.7940 zone after breaking key support at 0.7950 to touch a multi-year low of 0.7926, a level not seen since Nov. 3, 2008.

EUR pressure is seen across the board, on the back of more comments from ECB's Coeure about its role in the region’s debt crisis.

At the time of writing, the paring is quoted down 0.6% on the day and 1.8% this week to 0.7934. Immediate resistance lies in the mentioned 0.7950 area, then above at 0.7970 (30 May low). To the downside, support lies at 0.7860 (16 Oct 2008 high).

USD/JPY finds support at 79.50 and trims losses

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USD/JPY finds support at 79.50 and trims losses

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The dollar pared losses against the yen after hitting a 3-day low at the 79.50 area in the wake of risk aversion triggered by the US jobs report.

USD/JPY bounced from a low of 79.48 during the New York session, although the recovery has been limited by the 200-hour SMA around 79.65. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 79.60 zone, still down 0.4% on the day.

"The pair settled the week little changed after this week's monetary policy easing actions by various central banks prompted speculation that the BoJ may soon follow", says the Talking-Forex.com team. "In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 79.60/41 and then at 79.23. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 80.02/10 and then at 80.56".

Mid-Week Summary: July 2-6

Mid-Week Summary: July 2-6

By: Nikolas Xenofontos

EUR/USD

The Euro (EUR) commenced the week with apparent selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD), following Friday’s 223 pips rebound. A better than expected eurozone Manufacturing PMI on Monday and higher Retail Sales on Wednesday were not able to improve sentiment. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a rate cut to 0.75% and investors worldwide will closely monitor this announcement at 11:45 GMT and the press conference at 12:30 GMT.

GBP/USD

The British Pound (GBP) versus the US Dollar (USD) showed some appetite to attain higher highs on Monday but the pair’s upside potential proved limited. A much worse than anticipated Construction PMI on Tuesday, followed by a disappointing Services PMI on Wednesday pushed the Sterling lower. An announcement regarding the Bank of England’s interest rate and further asset purchases is due on Thursday at 11:00 GMT and may move the pair accordingly.

EUR/JPY

The single currency plunged against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the pair failed to break above the 101.60 resistance level. The relatively lackluster economic calendar from Japan leaves the pair susceptible to sizeable swings caused by developments in the eurozone. Market participants should be alert for headlines that may induce or remove risk appetite.

EUR/GBP

The Euro (EUR) versus the British Pound (GBP) had a volatile start to the week, which saw the pair opening higher at 0.8071 and then diving to 0.8017. Rate decisions from both central banks on Thursday and the respective statements that follow may heavily influence the exchange rate among the two currencies.

USD/CHF

The week commenced with the US Dollar (USD) weakening against the Swiss Franc (CHF). This was due to risk aversion following the positive resolutions reached during the EU summit held last week. The level to watch for this pair lies at 0.9570. A break and hold above this area could push the greenback higher.

Successful Trades on July 5, 2012

Successful Trades on July 5, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

GBP/USD

According to Christopher Lewis's analysis of the GBP/USD, "The pair appears to head lower". That creates an investment opportunity on the instruments: “Low”, “Touch Down” or "No Touch".

I logged in the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and I traded $1,200 on the "Low" instrument. This kind of option has a return of 85% if the option closes below the strike price which means that I could get a return of of 1,020$ on my investment if the signal is in my favour.

The strike price for GBP/USD at the buying time (13:08) was 1.55742 for the expiration of 13:15. The pair expiry price was 1.55713 and I won my position!

EUR/USD

According to Christopher Lewis's analysis of the EUR/USD, "I think we are essentially in a down trend". That creates an investment opportunity in the following positions: “Low”, “Touch Down” or "No Touch".

With optionFair™ binary options trading platform, I traded $1500 on the “Touch Down” instrument. This kind of option has a return of 77% if the option touches the strike price prior to the expiry.

That means that if the signal is correct, I could get a return of $1,155 on my investment. The market price for the EUR/USD at the buying time (13:17) was 1.25104 and the target price was 1.25066 for the expiry of 13:03. At 13:20 the market hit my target price and I won $1,155 in just 3 minutes!

EUR/USD Daily Outlook July 6, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook July 6, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

EUR/USD fell for most of the session, as the European Central Bank cut rates early in the day. The ECB cutting of the rate from 1% to 0.75% was widely expected, but it does appear that the bank is becoming more and more dovish. While this doesn't surprise me, after all we've been bickering about the European problems for three years now; the market seems to have been surprised for some unknown reason.

It really doesn't matter, all that matters is that the market fell. We are currently looking at a close that is very bearish, and with the nonfarm payroll number coming out we could see continued movement. More than likely, the first part of the Friday session will be very quiet as the world awaits the announcement out of America, and as such I expect very little motion out of this pair before 8:30 AM Eastern standard time.

For me, this pair looks very weak, and I can only sell the Euro as it has been the epicenter of all bad things in the Forex market. The world continues to buy the US dollar out of the fear, and while that isn't a great reason to be popular, it is certainly working to the favor of the Americans at the moment.

1.23

I am willing to sell a break of the low from the Thursday session, but only after the nonfarm payroll number comes out. After all, there's no point in putting risk on the table before what is essentially going to be a 50-50 announcement. If we see some type of supportive action in the Euro, we could see a move back up to the 1.27 level as it would simply continue to consolidate. However, I think eventually this pair does fall, and there is nothing currently that suggests that I'm wrong.

With this being said, after 8:30 AM New York time, I am going to be placing a position if we break down. If not, I will be looking to sell rallies as this pair should continue to struggle with various headline risk from time to time.

NZD/USD Daily Outlook July 6, 2012

NZD/USD Daily Outlook July 6, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

NZD/USD had a back-and-forth session on Thursday as traders that we could not make a decision on the risk appetite of markets in general. This makes sense, as the nonfarm payroll number comes out later today, and this of course will rock the risk appetite of the markets currently. One of the biggest reasons of course is that everyone knows that Europe slowing down, as is the Chinese market, so now we need to see whether or not the US employment situation can sustain the economic growth that we have seen in America. If this level gives way, there's a real chance that we will see a pronounced economic slowing around the world.

With this being a commodity sensitive currency pair, it makes sense that with gold, silver, oil, and many other commodities falling during the Thursday session that this pair fell. It should be noted however that the candle at the end of the session is very neutral, and this leads to a fairly straightforward set up for the Friday session.

0.80

Without a doubt, the most obvious spot on this chart from a technical analysis point of view is the 0.80 level. For me, it looks like a very supportive part of the chart; the more importantly it looks like it has a lot of support below it as well. Because of this, I will be buying this pair only as long as we are above the 0.78 level.

With the doji for the Thursday session, a break of the top of the Thursday range would be the easiest trade as it shows a continuation of the overall bullishness in this market. On a break of that top, I would be willing to buy and aim for the 0.82 level. However, if the pair breaks below the bottom of the candle, it should be noted that although bearish there is a ton of support all the way down to the 0.78 level. In this particular instance, I would be willing to buy but need to see some type of supportive candle between here and the 0.78 level. I would even be willing to use shorter time frames, as the reaction to the nonfarm payroll announcement tends to be erratic and short-lived.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook July 6, 2012

USD/JPY Daily Outlook July 6, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

USD/JPY again captures my attention for the session as it continues to lurk around the vital 80 handle. For months and months we have seen the 80 level be an area where price reacts over and over. The area is obviously important to someone with serious money, and as such I am very interested in it.

The Thursday session saw the pair fall initially, only to turn around and bounce to form a hammer yet again. This is the second hammer in a row, and also touches the bottom of what I believe is the up trending line for an up trending channel. However, the 80 handle course will cause a reaction is simply because of the fact it is a "large round number."

The pair does look bullish, and one has to keep in mind that this is simply the market trade decide who is going to be more dovish, the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan. Recently, the Bank of Japan has stepped up its asset purchase program in order to devalue the Yen. On the other side of the Pacific, the Federal Reserve has openly stated that it is employment numbers that it is paying attention to at the moment. There is some expectation of quantitative easing out the Federal Reserve, but if the employment numbers are fairly strong there will be lowered expectations of this. It is with this thesis that I evaluate this pair.

80.60 and an up trending channel

To me that channel looks more and more obvious on the chart. Granted, we are approaching an area that price simply has to move higher, so I suspect that the Friday session will produce some fireworks. With this type of setup, we have two potential trades to the upside: the pair could be bonds on a break of the highs from the Thursday session as it is the top of a hammer, or could be bought on a fresh high at the 80.60 level. Either way is acceptable strategy for trading this pair currently, and would take advantage of what would be perceived as the Federal Reserve holding on monetary easing.

I firmly believe that the Friday session could be the one that makes a few decisions for this pair. Is because of this that I am watching this pair closer than any other one for the session. As for selling, I simply will not do it as the Bank of Japan has been very active in working against the Yen below.

Euro Down on ECB as US Jobs Data Eyed

Euro Down on ECB as US Jobs Data Eyed

By: DailyForex.com

Yesterday, the European Central Bank did as analysts expected it would and announced a 25 basis points rate cut of their benchmark lending rate; markets had been hopeful that the central bank would offer more though, and were disappointed as a result. Afterward, the Euro slipped and is now holding close to a 5-week low against the U.S. Dollar, while striking a record low against the Australian Dollar.

As reported at 10:19 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.2382, a decline of 0.1% but not far from the $1.2364 low struck yesterday. Against the Australian Dollar, the Euro was trading at A$1.2015. The Aussie had struck a 2-month high versus the U.S. Dollar, trading at $1.0330 before retreating with profit taking to $1.0259, a loss of 0.2%.

Markets focus will be on the U.S. government’s private sector payroll data which will be released later today, and could provide the Euro with some easing. Analysts are expecting that 90,000 new jobs will have been added last month. If the numbers are better than expected, that could put a damper on expectations of the Federal Reserve moving to a more accommodative stance. Analysts had revised their numbers upward in the past few hours following the ADP jobs data release which came in better than expected.

Vive La Difference

Vive La Difference

By: DailyForex.com

The French returned a socialist to power in the Elyse Palace in May when Francois Hollande became president. The victory of the left was completed last month when the electorate gave them a mandate in a general election. This means that Mr Hollande will be able to push his vision through parliament and into action. France is the second largest economy in the Eurozone and outgoing president Nikolas Sarkozy tended to see things along similar lines to German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.

Germany is adamant that the way through the Eurozone crisis is through tighter fiscal union, tighter fiscal discipline and austerity measures designed to reign-in deficits to levels acceptable under the Eurozone convergence criteria. However, Mr Hollande was elected on a mandate of boosting growth through spending and promise not to subject the people to the woes of austerity. Going forward, all politicians are going to have to convince their electorates that they can deliver prosperity without painful austerity measures â€" this means that current administrations are likely to fall as soon as the polls close.

The French have just approved measures to tax households earning over the €1.3 million mark at 75% for a one-off tax with banks and oil companies also getting hit. These measures are hoped to net the exchequer €2.3 billion with broader hikes aiming to pull in €7.2 billion. On the spend side of the equation, they aim to honour election pledges to engage thousands of extra teachers and 150000 state- aided jobs. France hopes to achieve a balanced budget by 2017. Currently, France is spending €50 billion a year to service its public debt of about €1.2 trillion â€" roughly 90% of the nation’s GDP.

It remains to be seen how well the Franco-German axis within the EU will stand up to this shift in political direction within France. Ironically, Mrs Merkel’s closest ally is likely to be Britain’s David Cameron, but, of course, the UK is outside the Euro and has its own vested interests to consider.

Forex Flash: NFP projected at 110K

Forex Flash: NFP projected at 110K

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Japan Leading Economic Index increase to 95.9 in May

Japan Leading Economic Index increase to 95.9 in May

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Japan Coincident Index declines to 95.8 in May

Japan Coincident Index declines to 95.8 in May

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EUR/USD in red below 1.2400, NFP eyed

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EUR/USD in red below 1.2400, NFP eyed

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is trading just above yesterday’s lows ahead of today’s NFP. Market consensus calls for 90K, bettering last month’s 69K.

EUR was hammered on Thursday after the ECB has lowered the refi rate to a historic low of 0.75%. The deposits and lending rates were also cut to 0.0% and 0.15% respectively.

Thin docket in the euro zone â€" German industrial production and French trade balance â€" will shift investors’ attention to the NFP and the unemployment rate later on in the US.

The cross is now losing 0.07% at 1.2382 with the next support at 1.2360 ahead of 1.2288 then 1.2193 and 1.2167
On the flip side, a break above 1.2446 would expose 1.2500 then 1.2508 and 1.2538

Forex Flash: Markets in Asia-Pac consolidating

Forex Flash: Markets in Asia-Pac consolidating

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook July 5, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook July 5, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD pair had a negative day during the session on Wednesday. This really shouldn't be a huge surprise, as it is normally the Americans to step in and buy the Euro in general. With the Americans gone for the Independence Day holiday, there really was nobody left to buy it as the native traders tend to be the one to sell it.

There are two central bank monetary policy meetings coming up later today, and as such a lot of traders would be looking to take risk off the table. This would most certainly include the Euro, and the fact that it fell all the way down to 1.25 also suggest that there was no real volume were enthusiasm to the shorting of this currency.

However, it must be said that we have retraced most of the gains from last Friday. This suggests to me that the markets do not believe in the long term prospects of the European "solution and quote that was agreed upon during the last summit. This would be a surprise, after all is the 19th one and there's still a lack of details and more importantly - actual cash to backstop a lot of the endangered assets in the region.

Middle of the range

Although 1.25 held as support, I don't see it as the "ultimate support" underneath this pair. I think we are essentially in a downtrend and will see lower prices, but there is support to be found in the 1.24 region as well and this is the area that I would like to see broken before adding any short positions for the longer-term. With the ECB monetary statement coming out later today, we could expect very volatile marketplace for this currency pair. With this being said, it will be interesting to see what the reaction is at the end of the session.

We should remember that the nonfarm payroll announcement comes out on Friday, and that will move this pair as well. Because of that this should be a very volatile market, and may be best of we did over the next 48 hours. By the time the end of the Friday session comes, this market should have played its hand.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook July 5, 2012

GBP/USD Daily Outlook July 5, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

GBP/USD fell for the session on Wednesday as many of the traders will have felt better about taking exposure to the British pound off of their books. This is because of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision later today, and the unknowns that always come with that type of announcement. It should be noted that the central bank is expected to take on more British gilt buying, and at this point in time the market is probably trying to gauge how much of it will be going on.

Ironically, the more bond purchases that the central bank does - the more likely the Pound is to gain. Even though this is quantitative easing of sorts, the fact is that the Pound has been suffering because of the strains on the British banking system. With this in mind, it makes sense that the sense of relief could push this pair higher. However, we don't know how the market is ever going to react at a time, so observation is probably the best policy. Adding to this is the fact that the nonfarm payroll comes out on Friday, and this sets up for a potentially dangerous session.

Tight consolidation and a possible triangle

With the move down on Wednesday, it reinforced the idea of support at the 1.56 level. This should go down as low as 1.55, and as such falling from this level will more than likely be a result of a central bank announcement, and not a sudden shift in sentiment. On the upside, we can see that the 1.57 level is the beginning of serious resistance, and that resistance runs all the way up to 1.58 or so.

The formation that we currently see in this marketplace does look quite a bit like an ascending triangle. It is because of this that I believe that a break of the 1.58 level would be an extremely strong signal that should send this pair up to the 162 level or so. In a lot of ways, I look at this pair as a binary trade. If we close above 1.58, I am buying and holding on for another 400 pips or so. If we close below the 1.55 level, I believe we will retest the bottom at the 1.5250 level. In a lot of ways, this is simple consolidation that I will follow on a breakout - one of my favorite types of trades.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook July 5, 2012

USD/JPY Daily Outlook July 5, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

USD/JPY had an interesting day on Wednesday to say the least. The pair initially fell during a "risk off" type of environment, but did manage to bounce late in the day in order to form a hammer. This is one of my favorite pairs to watch right now as there are so many different things going on at once. You can really get a feel of the mentality of Forex traders watching specific pair sometimes. This is one of those times for the USD/JPY pair.

Some of you may not have been trading long enough to remember that this used to be a fairly straightforward pair to trade. A few years ago, one would simply by this pair as the interest rate differential favor the United States. This was known as the "carry trade", and was used by many Forex traders around the world.

I believe that we may be entering a new phase in this market, and could perhaps be returning back to that old trade. This is because the Bank of Japan is so aggressive in working against the value of the Yen, that just about any type of monetary policy that involves easing can and will be attempted. On the other hand, we have the Federal Reserve which is still a bit of a mystery, but does like the ease well. This pair has simply been a measure of which central bank is going to ease more over time.

Confluence of factors

The hammer that was formed for Wednesday does show that we are continuing to build pressure to the upside in this market. In fact, there is the possibility that we are currently forming a nice up trending channel in this pair, and this could be the first signs of an uptrend beginning to form again. With that being said, it appears that the 80 handle is significant resistance and if it gives way, we should see a significant burst tire. For those that there'll the more conservative with their trading I would recommend waiting until the most recent high at the 80.60 level was overtaken as well. In fact, if that level gives way, I believe that this pair will go to at least 84 before it's all said and done. If that level gives way - this could become a long-term trend.

GBP/USD Aims Lower- July 5, 2012

GBP/USD Aims Lower- July 5, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The week before last the GBP/USD retraced to the 50% level of the Bearish run that lasted for the entire month of May, before heading lower again, and only to be pulled right back up by investors reaction to the EU Summit news as well as fund managers, banks, and private investors covering their positions at the end of the second quarter. The pair then consolidated at the 1.5700 level since opening this week and finally falling again yesterday coming to a halt on the Monthly Pivot at 1.5580. The pair appears to be getting set to head lower, as the Pound loses strength against the American Greenback (USD). For me, this continuation will occur if prices push below last weeks low at 1.5483. The Weekly S1 is in the way at 1.5336 adding a level of support that the Bears will have to break first. If the low breaks, look for prices to test the Monthly S1/Weekly S2 at 1.5386 and then the 6 month low at 1.5267. There are numerous reports out of the Monetary Policy Committee Ba nk Of England scheduled for today, which could be good news, but most traders are not expecting much. If the news is good for the Sterling we can expect prices will turn Bullish, at least temporarily as the Non Farm Payroll is always a roller coaster for anything attached to the USD. If prices do trade higher, look for strong Resistance between 1.5850 1.5895 before testing 1.6000 becomes a possibility again.

Happy Trading!

USD/JPY: range action likely ahead of US NFP – V.Bednarik

USD/JPY: range action likely ahead of US NFP â€" V.Bednarik

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USD/JPY: range action likely ahead of US NFP V.Bednarik

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - USD/JPY traded a broad range between 79.45 and 80.10 on Thursday, reaching an eight-day high before closing the session virtually unchanged at 79.90 vs. 79.86 late Wednesday.

Hovering quietly in the 79.90 zone ahead of the Tokyo fix, the pairing may encounter support at 79.80, 79.45 and 79.20 should bears regain control, while beyond 80.10, the upside offers resistance at 80.30 and 80.60.

Technically speaking, “In the 4 hours chat indicators hold a neutral bias as per hovering around their midlines while price stands above moving averages,” comments Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com. “The 79.45/80.10 range will likely persist ahead of US NFP data Friday European morning.”

Australia Jun AiG Performance of Construction Index 34.8

Australia Jun AiG Performance of Construction Index 34.8

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Australia: PCI reads 34.8 in June, contracts for 25 straight months

Australia: PCI reads 34.8 in June, contracts for 25 straight months

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AUD/USD combating boredom thru 1.0275-85 range

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AUD/USD combating boredom thru 1.0275-85 range

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Australian Dollar is trading a tad lower ahead of the Tokyo open, following an eventful Australia Jun AiG Performance of Construction Index release, which came at 34.8 in June vs 34.7 the month before. AUD/USD is presently at 1.0280, having firmed up from area of value for buyers around 1.0240, although it still remains some 40+pips off weekly highs at 1.0327 post second China 25bp rate cut.

Technically, Valeria Bednarik, who works as Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, said: "Aussie managed to hold to recent gains despite the risk aversion environment and the Chinese rate cut, yet investors may start wondering now if it worth keep buying the pair: while the hourly chart shows indicators mostly flat, in the 4 hours one technical divergences continue developing. Still, pair is far from suggesting a slide and only below 1.0220 the bearish pressure will start increasing."

Valeria report reads: "Support levels: 1.0250 1 .0220 1.0180, Resistance levels: 1.0290 1.0325 1.0360."

Forex Flash: Healthy NFP may serve to cap AUD/USD above 1.03

Forex Flash: Healthy NFP may serve to cap AUD/USD above 1.03

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Euro and Pound Under Easing Pressure

Euro and Pound Under Easing Pressure

By: DailyForex.com

The Euro and the Pound Sterling are both under pressure as investors speculate that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will take up a more accommodative stance later today.

The consensus of a recent poll of analysts suggests that the ECB will announce a rate cut of 25 basis points, though a smaller percentage is forecasting a reduction of 50 basis points. Markets will also scrutinize Mario Draghi’s press conference which is held not long after the announcement to determine whether another LTRO (long term refinancing operation) might be in the offing; the proceeds of previous LTRO schemes have helped to cap sovereign bond yields, and markets remain concerned over the rising yields for Spanish and Italian debt. The EUR/USD pair lost nearly 0.7% on Wednesday during light traffic as a result of the U.S. holiday. The Euro held close to a 1-week low against the U.S. Dollar in Asian trading, dropping to $1.2526;.and immediate support can be seen at around $1.2495.

The Bank of England has little room for interest rate movement but is expected to announce an increase in its asset purchases program to counter the effects of the Eurozone debt crisis. The GBP/USD had been trading lower at $1.5586, and has lost nearly 100 pips from last Friday’s high.

EUR/USD steadies below 1.2400

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EUR/USD steadies below 1.2400

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro managed to pare losses versus the dollar after hitting a fresh 1-month low of 1.2363 in the wake of ECB's announcement and press conference comments, as well as better than expected US employment data, which boosted the greenback.

EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.2365 area although the recovery it's being capped by the 1.2390 zone. At time of writing, EUR/USD is quoting at the 1.2380/85 region, recording a 1.2% loss on the day.

From a technical view, Slobodan Drvenica, analyst at Windsor Brokers Ltd, notes that the loss of the 1.2400 base, increases risk of revisiting key support and two-year low at 1.2287, posted on Jun 1.

"Negative tone now dominates on lower and larger timeframes, with overextended conditions on hourly and 4H charts suggesting corrective action", says the analyst. "Previous strong supports at 1.2400/40, now offers initial resistance, while only break above today's high and 50% retracement of 1.2691/1.2376 at 1.2535, will provide relief".

Forex Flash: China lowers rates, RRR cut just around the corner

Forex Flash: China lowers rates, RRR cut just around the corner

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Forex Flash: China lowers rates, RRR cut just around the corner - Danske Bank

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) today cut its lending and deposit rate rates by 31bp and 25bp to 6% and 3%, respectively. "This is the second interest rate cut is less than one month and hence should be regarded as a relatively aggressive easing move", says the Danske Bank team.

"The market might be cynical about the move and as in June take the interest cut as an indication that the important economic data to be released next week will be weak", they say. "In our view, next week's data will show that the sharp drop in inflation is now allowing the PBoC to respond more aggressively to the recent subdued data".

"Today's interest rate cut has increased the likelihood that the leading interest rates will be cut by more than 25bp before year end. We still forecast another 50bp cut in the reserve requirement to be just around the corner", they conclude.

EUR/JPY struggles to regain 99.00

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EUR/JPY struggles to regain 99.00

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro trimmed losses against the yen and managed to climb back above the 99.00 mark as the post-ECB sell-off lost momentum during the American afternoon.

EUR/JPY hit a 6-day low of 98.78 in the wake of the ECB's decision to cut its benchmark rate to a record low of 0.75%, but found support at that level and rebounded slightly. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is quoting at the 99.00/05 area, still recording a 100-pip or 1.0% loss on the day.

In terms of technical levels, in case of further euro weakness, next supports are seen at 98.80, 98.50 and 98.30, while in case of recoveries resistances could be found at 99.30, 99.50 and 100.00.

Forex Flash: GBP/USD would weaken after QE extension

Forex Flash: GBP/USD would weaken after QE extension

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Forex Flash: GBP/USD would weaken after QE extension - Currencies.co.uk

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Today the Bank of England announced another round of QE which will pump £50bn into the UK economy over the next four months while leaving UK interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

"As much expected the Bank of England has announced its extension of QE and will be pumping a further £50bn into the UK economy. If experience is anything to go by this does not pose positive news for Sterling", Stephen Hughes, Director of Currencies.co.uk commented. "In the past QE has led to weakness for the pound, with QE increasing supply and lowering value as a result".

"We will be watching the markets closely to see if history repeats itself and would suggest that anyone planning to buy USD or EUR in the short term considers a forward contract to fix the exchange rate at its current level", he concluded.

EUR/CAD: scope for push to 1.22

EUR/CAD: scope for push to 1.22

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EUR/CAD: scope for push to 1.22 - TDS

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - There is a lot of interesting price action in EUR/CAD this Thursday in North America, having fallen to a fresh 2-year low of 1.2531 vs. 1.2682 late Wednesday, last at 1.2560, recording a 1% loss on the day and a 2.5% loss so far on the week.

Technically speaking, “Daily oscillator studies show that the EUR is nearing oversold levels but this is not necessarily a warning of a reversal,” says TD Securities. “Rather, we note the tick up in the DMI oscillator on the daily charts towards more obviously bearish territory â€" aligning itself with bearish trending DMI signals across a range of timeframes.”

TDS continues: “Bigger picture, our read of the long-term charts still suggests that 1.21/1.22 is perhaps the ultimate destination for this broader move lower.”

US: Challenger Job Cuts by 37600 in June (YoY)

US: Challenger Job Cuts by 37600 in June (YoY)

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ECB cuts interest rate by 25 bps to 0.75% in Jul

ECB cuts interest rate by 25 bps to 0.75% in Jul

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NZD/USD kiwi surges after news in China and ECB decision

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NZD/USD kiwi surges after news in China and ECB decision

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The kiwi has pulled a 180 degree turn and is now surging against the greenback following news that China cut its benchmark lending rate 31bps to 6% and a favorable outcome in the ECB (Interest rate was decreased from +1.00% to +0.75%, which equaled expetations). Thursday has been quite volatile for the pair, which has traded between a low of 0.8011 and a high of 0.8065.

Investors of the kiwi look ahead to next week where the NZ event calendar is much busier than the week in progress. This should offer a refreshing change of pace for the kiwi during a week that was seemingly dominated by ECB speculative movements. On Tuesday, quarterly business opinion survey has the potential to move the pair and according to Sean Callow, a Strategy Analyst at Westpac, “the quarterly version is a better predictor of activity than is the monthly, so any significant declines in its components could cause some NZD selling.” Sticking with Tuesday, electronic spen ding and house prices measures in NZ will also be reported, while Manufacturing PMI, food prices and monthly consumer confidence (Thu) and house sales will complete the week.

Briefing the technicals, the cross is presently trading in the region of 0.8065, advancing steadfastly at a rate of +0.35%. ICN.com technical analysts confirm the next short-term resistances at 0.8080, followed by 0.8135, and ultimately 0.8160. Should this rally be extinguished, the a breach of 0.8015 will initiate supports in 0.7985 and finally 0.7905.

EUR/USD plummets below 1.2460 region after ECB

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EUR/USD plummets below 1.2460 region after ECB

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR fell to 1.2480 soon after the ECB cut the refi rate 25 bps to a historic low at 0.75%, matching market expectations. The central bank also cut the marginal lending rate to 1.50% from 1.75% and the deposits rate by 25 bps to 0.0%.

With this move lower, the ECB has joined the BoE and the PBoC in easing further the monetary policy.

EUR/USD is now printing fresh lows at 1.2459 or losing 0.55% with the next support at 1.2418 (Lower Bollinger) then 1.2407 (low Jun.28) and 1.2375 (low Jun.4).
On the upside, a break above 1.2560 (MA21d) would expose 1.2608 (high Jul.4) and then 1.2627 (high Jul.3).

EMU: ECB cuts rate by 25bp to 0.75% in July

EMU: ECB cuts rate by 25bp to 0.75% in July

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American Recovery “Tepid”

American Recovery “Tepid”

By: DailyForex.com

The factor which draws a line under a recession is that economies move into a period of strong growth â€" its strong since the records against which it is measured have all trended to low values, apart from anything else (this is illustrated by some very high productivity figures, in percentage terms, from the Japanese automotive industry coming off the post-tsunami lows of spring 2011, for instance). The recession caused by the global financial crisis is atypical in that the recovery phase has been muted, partially because the underlying reason for recession, loss of confidence within the financial sector, has yet to be fully addressed.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has described the US economic recovery as “tepid” and reduced its forecast for growth from 2.1% down to 2%. However, it recognised the fortunes of Europe as a key risk to US economy. The IMF identified managing the pace of deficit reduction plans without hurting the US economy as “challenging”.

“The United States remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis, which would be transmitted mainly via a generalized increase in risk aversion and lower asset prices, as well as from trade channels” said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C.

Political factors also pose a risk to the economy in this, a presidential election year. Notably, the US faces a “fiscal cliff” with $4 trillion of tax increases and government spending cuts set to happen automatically by the end of the year and the problem that the debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion set to be broken later in the year. The IMF urged that a new ceiling be agreed quickly to avoid loss of confidence. Failure to achieve an agreement could mean the US defaulting on some of its obligations as almost happened a year ago.

Successful Trades on July 4, 2012

Successful Trades on July 4, 2012

Trades Placed by optionFair

AUD/USD

According to Christopher Lewis's analysis of the AUD/USD, this pair is going up. That creates an investment opportunity on the “High” and “Touch” instruments.

I logged into the optionFairâ„¢ Binary Options Trading Platform and traded $1,000 on the "High" instrument.This kind of option has a return of 76% if the option closes above the target price, meaning if the signal is correct I could get a return of $760 on my investment.

The target price for AUD/USD at the buying time (11:15) was 1.02674 for the expiration of 11:30. The pair closed on 1.02756 and I made $760.

EUR/USD

Based on Christopher Lewis's analysis of the EUR/USD. The pair will begin to fall back into its bearish trend. That creates an investment opportunity in the following positions: “Low” or “Touch Down” on the EUR/USD.

With optionFair™ Binary Options Trading Platform, I traded $1,000 on the “Touch Down” instrument. This kind of option has a return of 77% if the option touches the strike price prior to the expiry. I could get a return of $770 on my investment, if the signal is correct.

The market price for the EUR/USD at the buying time (10:43) was 1.25842 and the target price was 1.25793. At 10:51 the market hit my target price and I won $ 770 in 8 minutes!

NZD/JPY drifts sideways around 64.00

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NZD/JPY drifts sideways around 64.00

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - NZD/JPY remains in a trend-less period as investors await further cues from the European Central Bank policy meeting tonight where it is expected to cut interest rates to help the struggling euro zone economy.

The market has traded a limited range between 63.56 and 64.33 since the start of the week, last at 64.20 vs. 63.97 past Friday. For the past 26 hours, the pair has been bracketed within a 30-pip range, hovering above the 50% retracement zone of the 69.11/57.94 downswing. Should NZD/JPY manage to break out to the upside, it could encounter resistance at 64.80 (61.8%, mentioned selloff), while the downside may offer support at 63.79 (26 Jan low).

Forex Flash: BoE to increase asset purchase facility by £75bn

Forex Flash: BoE to increase asset purchase facility by £75bn

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Forex Flash: BoE to increase asset purchase facility by 75bn - UBS

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Geoffrey Yu, UBS strategist, it is expected that the BoE will increase their asset purchase facility by £75bn (cons. £50bn) during their monthly MPC meeting on Thursday.

Under Geoffrey view, "the need for greater stimulus to complement the BoE's efforts to optimize credit allocation is seen as a more assertive strategy to bounce back from the current technical recession in the UK, though the BoE may also choose to highlight that with external conditions remaining a strong headwind for the UK, it will take time for the results of the new measures to show."

UBS economists note that the MPC will announce a plan that will extend until the November meeting: "The committee is unlikely to announce a small plan in July and then revisit the programme at the August meeting when it publishes its latest economic forecasts. If that is the case, a £75bn plan over four months is exactly the same pace as QE2 announced in October last year a nd actually somewhat slower than the start of QE1 in March 2009 (£75bn over three months)."

EUR/USD in tight range ahead of ECB

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EUR/USD in tight range ahead of ECB

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - EUR/USD traded down 0.7% on Wednesday to 1.2524, fueled by reduced ECB expectations and thin liquidity during the NA session as markets in the U.S. were shut for the Independence Day holiday.

The EBC is expected to cut its deposit rate by 25 bps, but Draghi’s post-decision statement will be watched closely as the ECB is expected to play its own part in the crisis resolution.

As Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com notes from a technical perspective, the 4 hours chart holds a bearish tone, but is limited in strength so far; “still a break below 1.2470 key support should lead to a stronger slide in the pair towards the 1.2400/20 price zone,” she says.

In the current Asian session, investors are expected to remained sidelined before the ECB policy setting meeting later this Thursday. EUR/USD last tr ades at 1.2523, with support levels noted at 1.2510, 1.2470 and 1.2420, while resistance levels lie at 1.2545, 1.2580 and 1.2620.

AUD/USD at session lows; Aus trade data eyed

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AUD/USD at session lows; Aus trade data eyed

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Australian dollar managed to print a fresh 2 month high at 1.0320 before retreating, ending Wednesday’s trade at 1.0272 vs. 1.0280 late Tuesday after finding short term support in the 1.0260 area.

In today’s Asian session, Australian Trade Balance data for May will be risk event for AUD, with the deficit expected to widen to $500m in May from $203m in April.

Worthy of note, Chinese imports from Australia have held up well despite a slowdown in its broader economy, a trend that could have an impact in today's AU trade data; Chinese imports from Australia have climbed to a 31.3% y/y pace in May from 24.2% in April and 19.4% in March.

“The overall bias remains bullish for the pair, with short term bearish chances depending on market sentiment and increasing risk aversion,” comments Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is bracketed between 1.0261 and 1.0278, last quoted near the bottom of the range. Beyond the extremes, Ms. Bednarik identifies support levels at 1.0220 and 1.0180, while resistance levels lie at 1.0290, 1.0320 and 1.0360.

Foorex Flash: Any AUD/USD setback to be limited ahead of CB decisions

Foorex Flash: Any AUD/USD setback to be limited ahead of CB decisions

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GBP/USD falls further below 1.5600

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GBP/USD falls further below 1.5600

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Another wave of selling hit the pound in American hours, sending GBP/USD to fresh lows under 1.5600. GBP/USD fell to 1.5573, its lowest level since last Friday, before recovering slightly. At time of writing, the pair trades at the 1.5585/90 area, 0.6% or 100 pips below its opening price.

The pair remains under pressure ahead of the BoE decision, were analysts expect an extension of the bank's QE program, and in the wake of the recent Libor-scandal.

In terms of technical levels, below 1.5575, next supports could be found at 1.5540/50 and 1.5520. On the upside, resistances could now be encountered at 1.5615, 1.5650 and 1.5690.

Forex Flash: AUD/USD near 2-month high after breaking 100 and 200 DMA's

Forex Flash: AUD/USD near 2-month high after breaking 100 and 200 DMA's

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Forex Flash: AUD/USD near 2-month high after breaking 100 and 200 DMA's - Scotiabank

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - AUD is flat versus the USD but trading near two month highs "following yesterday's breach of both the 100 (1.0261) and 200 (1.0256) day MA's", says Scotiabank analyst team.

"Stronger retail sales figures have been released, with upward revisions to the previous period, providing a bullish signal for a segment of the Australian economy that remains under pressure", they add. "Finally, trade data will be released following the NA session, with the potential to drive movement in AUD given expectations for a widened deficit".

USD/CAD holds above key support level

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USD/CAD holds above key support level

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - USD/CAD remains locked in tight range and trades nearly flat on Wednesday amid low volume in FX markets as US celebrates the Independence Day. USD/CAD hit a fresh 7-week low of 1.0118 during the Asian session, but lost momentum and has been trading in a 20-pip range ever since.

Despite Canadian dollar recent strength, USD/CAD has failed to break decisively below the 1.0120/15 support zone, where the 50% retracement of the 0.9798/1.0444 rally and the 200-day SMA converge. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0125 area.

In terms of technical levels, below 1.0120 next supports are seen at 1.0100, and the 1.0045/50 area (61.8% retracement and 100-day SMA). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.0150, 1.0170 and 1.0200.

Forex Flash: Euro expected to weaken further

Forex Flash: Euro expected to weaken further

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Forex Flash: Euro expected to weaken further - UBS

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - According to UBS, there is a sense in the marketplace that the rally following last week's EU summit might extend.

However, EUR/USD has traded under pressure this Wednesday in North America, last at1.2536 vs. 1.2605 late Tuesday. In the global day ahead, market consensus is looking for a 25bp cut from the ECB.

“The euro has to some extent decoupled from market risk more broadly, not least as the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy further,” says UBS. “We expect this trend to continue and the euro to weaken further to our 3m target of 1.20, even if overall risk sentiment remains well supported.”

EUR/NZD touches record low

EUR/NZD touches record low

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook July 4, 2012

EUR/USD Daily Outlook July 4, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

The EUR/USD pair had a slightly positive tone to it during the Tuesday session. The fact that the 1.25 level still hasn't been violated to the downside does state the obvious: the 1.25 level is an area where certain traders feel there is value in this currency pair. However, this is starting to look more and more like consolidation and consolidation typically leads to continuation.

The "solution" that came out of Europe last week still is very thin on details and in fact one go into effect anytime soon. More than likely, we will see the markets punish the Europeans long before they can get any of this implemented. The Germans have court battles coming to test the constitutionality of the agreement. Granted, in the past the Germans have done this before only to rule in favor of the EU, but it does put some doubt in the air.

More importantly, Spanish bond yields rose after this agreement. For something that was supposed to take care of the Spanish and Italian bonds markets, it certainly has failed so far. Because of this, I feel personally that the Europeans are still far behind in dealing with this obviously toxic situation. In fact it seems that the pseudo-solution that they came up with was born more out of a fear of what the markets were about the due to them than any type of consensus of a clear path going forward.

Consolidation and central banks

The ECB and the Bank of England both have meetings over the next 48 hours. There will be announcements made, and there is an expectation of the ECB cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. There are expectations of the Bank of England purchasing more gilt bonds, which is of course another form of monetary easing. With this being said, I still have trouble with the idea of putting money into Europe at this point in time.

It has been proven time and time again that the euro fails every time it tries to rally. I believe that we are a long way away from the steady and progressive dance higher that we have one seen in the Euro. With this in mind, I prefer to sell overall but the recent action looks like a slightly upward bias for the next couple sessions. Nonetheless, it does appear that the 1.27 level will keep a lid on the market, and I am willing to sell a week candle at that point. If the Friday candle that was so strong gets violated to the downside I'm willing to sell aggressively. If we break higher, I won't join the fray, I will simply wait until the 1.30 level to sell as it is an even stronger resistance point. I believe that we are in a cyclically negative time period for the Euro in general, and I am not willing to hold onto this currency for more than a short term scalp.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook July 4, 2012

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook July 4, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

GBP/JPY has been fairly quiet over the last 48 hours, which isn't necessarily bad surprising considering all of the risk in the markets over the course of this week. This pair does tend to be very risk sensitive, and as such many traders would be a bit nervous getting involved at this point in time.

With the ECB, Bank of England, and the labor numbers in the United States all making headlines this week, it is very likely that this pair will make a serious move sooner or later and that it could be a fairly long-lasting one. With this being said, I have a lot of interest in this pair as it does tend to move rapidly once it makes up its mind.

Confluence of factors

The pair currently finds itself at the 125 handle, which is a spot where several different things happen at one time currently. For starters, it is a large round psychological number which will always attract traders in one form or the other. Not pictured on the chart simply because it goes back to far, is the fact that the 125 level (or so) is the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the downtrend. This of course will offer resistance and many traders will be banking on it to backstop their short trades.

On top of that, you see a green moving average on the chart and this is the 200 day exponential moving average. You can see is just above current pricing, and this suggests that a lot of trend traders will be looking to sell here as well. However, if there is a new "sugar high" in the stock and the risk markets, we will see this pair breakout.

The nice thing about this trade is that the 126 level is such an obvious end to the resistance on shorter-term charts. Is because of this that I am willing to buy this pair on a break above 126 at the daily close. However, I am fully aware of the fact that there is plenty resistance to be found in this area, and as such am willing to sell on signs of weakness also. On a short though, I do see that the 123 level would be rather supportive. While I do not expect a trade the fire off right away, I do expect by the time Friday rolls around we should know where the next several hundred pips are in this market.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook July 4, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook July 4, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

AUD/USD rose slightly during the session on Tuesday as it refused to pullback after the massive surge late last week. This is a very bullish sign for the short term, as the 1.0250 level has been overcome as well. The “risk on” attitude of the markets will continue as long as there is an expectation of quantitative easing around the world. The ECB and Bank of England are certainly going to be doing some easing over the next couple of days, and this will set of the Federal Reserve.

The nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday will be very important for this pair, as it is obvious that the Federal Reserve is looking at the unemployment situation in the United States as a measuring guide for monetary policy. The Fed will almost certainly be looking to ease further if there is a port number on Friday; at least that is what the market seems to be thinking currently. The 1.0250 level has given way as resistance, and this is a bullish sign. Gold has checked out a bit as well, gaining $25 during the Tuesday session, and many other commodities such as crude oil have also surged over the last day or two.

1.04 is next

It appears to me that the next significant resistance level in this market is at the 1.04 level. There really isn't much between here and there technically that looks able to push prices down. However, whenever dealing with the Australian dollar you must remember that it is a highly risk sensitive currency. Bad headlines out of Europe or elsewhere could possibly send this pair much lower. I'm not willing to sell yet however, as the parity level looks like such strong support.

My suspicion is this is a classic case of "climbing the wall of worry" that stock traders often exhibit. It will take fortitude to hang on to the high risk currency over the next couple of days, but in a perverse form of logic a bad number is actually good for this risk currency on Friday. It would suggest that the Federal Reserve would be easing soon, and this of course will push money into commodities, which in turn pushes money into Australia.

EUR/USD Poised to Break Higher?

EUR/USD Poised to Break Higher?

By: DailyForex.com

Although many investors, traders and analysts are predicting that it is only a matter of time that the EUR/USD will begin to fall back into its Bearish trend, the daily chart has an almost text book perfect Ax or Hatchet formation that indicates it is getting ready to break higher. The pair is resting on the Monthly/Weekly Pivot level at 1.2560 and has leveled off its lows with descending highs. This is typically a Bullish Breakout pattern. If price does in fact turn Bullish, the 1.2660 level will be a key level to hold above. If prices close above 1.2660 the Ax will be broken and a run up to 1.2760 is probable. However, watch out for a FOBO (Fake Out Break Out) as price might break higher, only to fall rapidly through the bottom of the Hatchet and break the support at 1.2560. If this happens look for 1.2475 to be the next key level of support, and then 1.2375 before possibly forming a double bottom at 1.2300. If prices do continue higher after breaking out and 1.2760 is breached, look for prices to continue to 1.3020, which is a very strong level of resistance and highly probable bounce point. In the near term my outlook is Bullish, but in the bigger picture I still remain Bearish.

Happy Trading!

Euro Softer as ECB, US Labor Looms

Euro Softer as ECB, US Labor Looms

By: DailyForex.com

The common currency edged lower against the greenback in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors speculate that the European Central Bank will take a more dovish stance at their rate setting meeting tomorrow. Speculators are pricing in a 25 basis points rate cut by the ECB, though there is growing hope and expectations that the central bank might surprise with an even larger cut of 50 basis points. Although easing would weigh on the currency in the longer term, the immediate impact will likely be a short-lived rally as risk appetite improves broadly.

As reported at 10:47 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.2595, a decline of 0.1% but not too far from the low of $1.2559 struck on Tuesday. Resistance is seen immediately at $1.2693, last Friday’s high and support is at $1.2545 and then $1.2565.

The U.S. market is closed for the celebration of the Independence Day holiday today, but upon resumption, investors will eye the upcoming release of June labor data; first is the ADP release of private sector data on Thursday, seen as a fairly reliable gauge of the government’s non-farms payroll data which will be released on Friday. Analysts are forecasting that ADP’s data will show a decline to 97,000 new jobs from May’s 133,000, while NFP data forecasts predicting 90,000 new jobs from May’s 69,000.

Spanish Unemployment Eases

Spanish Unemployment Eases

By: DailyForex.com

Spain has the worst unemployment problem of any EU country with 24.6% of its workforce idle in May. However, according to Spain’s Labour Ministry, the statistics took a sharp turn for the better in June with a 2.1% reduction in the number of Spaniards filing for unemployment benefit over the May figure.

June marks the start of the summer tourist season in Spain, so employment figures experience a seasonal boost, but the employment situation has been easing since March when unemployment hit a new record of 4.75 million people.

Spain’s secretary of state for labour, Engracia Hidalgo noted: “June is traditionally good for the unemployment queue but we have never reached a decline of nearly 100,000 people. We will have to follow the development of the unemployment figures after this good data for June to verify whether we are turning towards a positive trend".

Spain got into difficulties when a property bubble burst at the height of the global financial crisis. This left the banks with a lot of bad debt, construction workers idle, and projects unfinished because their market value was a fraction of the completion cost. The central government had to provide support to the financial sector and find funding for increased social security costs.

In order to reduce debt and get the country back onto a secure financial footing, the government has had to implement austerity measures in the shape of spending cuts and tax increases. This does nothing to support employment. Spain was also forced to make changes to its employment legislation to make it easier to hire and fire people; reduce severance payments and cut back on inflation-linked pay rises. Naturally, these measures have proved very unpopular with the Spanish people and their unions.

China Jun HSBC China Services PMI: 52.3

China Jun HSBC China Services PMI: 52.3

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EUR/AUD breaks below 1.2200 on positive Aussie data

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EUR/AUD breaks below 1.2200 on positive Aussie data

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/AUD just touched a fresh 4-month low at 1.2194 following much better Australia retail sales than expected, lowest since Feb 17. The cross is lower since previous Asia-Pacific open yesterday by -0.35%, and -1.11% for the week so far. It peaked for year 2012 at May 19 1.3033 having lost since then some -6.16%.

With EUR and GBP being weakest currencies in last few days, and Aussie and Kiwi strongest, EUR/AUD has been closing lower in 6 out of the last 7 days, with daily RSI reading 22.48 and 17.81 in the 8 hours bars chart, showing is way oversold in the short term, and all time lows at beginning of current year in February around the 1.21 level.

Immediate support to the downside for EUR/AUD comes at recent session and fresh 4-month lows 1.2192, followed by Feb 03/15 lows at 1.2176, and Feb 16 lows at 1.2150. For the upside, closest resistance shows at yesterday's lows 1.2244, followed by yesterday's highs at 1.2298, and Friday's lows at 1 .2325.

Forex Flash: NZD/USD to remain on a positive trend for the rest of the year

Forex Flash: NZD/USD to remain on a positive trend for the rest of the year

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EUR/USD fails above 1.2600

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EUR/USD fails above 1.2600

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD is currently at 1.2590, off session lows at 1.2581, falling from the very start of the Asia-Pacific trade around the 1.2605, resuming the slide from yesterday's highs at 1.2626 by early NY. Slightly lower since started following a mild sell off when Tokyo opened, the pair is about flat from yesterday's Asia-Pacific open, and down -0.59% for the week so far. Local share markets are modestly in the green, while US futures are flat.

Focused on key ECB event coming Thursday, and with the US closed today for holiday, the London session ahead brings a soft agenda in EUR macro data related, starting with Germany selling € 4B worth in bonds at 06:00 GMT, followed by Italian services PMI at 07:45 GMT, final EU services PMI 15 minutes later, and EU retail sales and final GDP 1 hour later. Services PMI for the UK at 08:30 could bring some volatility to EUR/GBP. Spain's 10y yield closed yesterday at 6.25%.

Immediate support to the downside fo r EUR/USD comes at recent session lows 1.2580, followed by Monday's lows at 1.2568, and June 19/yesterday's lows at 1.2560, while for the upside closest resistance show at Monday's London session lows/yesterday's London session highs at 1.2610, followed by yesterday's highs at 1.2630, and June 20 lows at 1.2640.

Forex Flash: Evidence mounting for RBA to hold rates in August

Forex Flash: Evidence mounting for RBA to hold rates in August

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Forex Flash: Evidence mounting for RBA to hold rates in August - NAB

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Australia May retail sales came much higher than expected, with sales up at 0.5% vs median forecast +0.2%. NAB Analyst Spiros Papadopoulos attributes the improvement to Clean Energy Advance payments to households, speculating that in June, "the boost will be even larger as households receive the School Kids bonus."

After the good run of domestic data in recent weeks and oon the assumption that this positive pattern continues, Mr. Papadopoulos thinks it will be hard for the RBA to find a reason to cut rates in August even if the Q2 CPI is subdued.

"Prior to the next RBA meeting we will get the June business confidence/employment/credit/building approvals/house prices and retail sales releases, and it is those releases that will determine if the rate cuts so far are sufficient for now, or if the RBA needs to cut further in August. Markets currently pricing just a 50% chance of a cut in August, down from 60% prior to the retail data" says Mr. Papadopoulos.

EUR/USD Signal- July 3, 2012

EUR/USD Signal- July 3, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: EUR/USD
Trend Expected Direction: UP
Method: Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Levels
Description: 15 Minute chart analysis based on three patterns correction. Pattern one was a falling Zigzag that landed away from target level, followed by expanded flat that about to complete 1.618 fib to form wave (B)/(X) and another motive wave expected for final pattern three that might take a shape of five small waves. However, this trade is for RISK LOVERS/GAMBLERS Only. Who likes it, can try it. I will not trade this call, but will wait until price reaches what I am expecting, then will post my trade plan. Wishing traders good luck.
Recommendation: Sell
Target Area: 1.25300
Stop Loss: 1.2650

United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (MoM) falls to 1.1% in Jun from 1.5%

United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (MoM) falls to 1.1% in Jun from 1.5%

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EUR/USD plays with the 1.2600 round

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EUR/USD plays with the 1.2600 round

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD is trading last slightly above the 1.2600 mark, up from previous Asia-Pacific open yesterday by +0.18%, after a day with lows at 1.2559, and highs at 1.2626. The pair is lower for the week by -0.47% with the US closed on holiday for later on this Wednesday. Global share markets had another day of gains for almost five consecutive days, with SP500 rising some +0.62%.

As Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at Fxstreet.com points out: “The hourly chart shows indicators flat, giving no clues on direction, while in the 4 hours chart price stands above 20 SMA while momentum heads south below its midline, helping keep the upside limited,” the analyst says, adding: “Range extremes to watch are 1.2550 to the downside, and 1.2630 to the upside.”

Support levels are located at: 1.2585 1.2550, and 1.2510, while resistance levels show at: 1.2630 1.2675, and 1.2710.

AUD/USD below 1.0300 ahead of AU retail sales

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AUD/USD below 1.0300 ahead of AU retail sales

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - AUD/USD is currently retreating at 1.0284 from fresh 8-week highs yesterday by early NY at 1.0296, higher since previous Asia-Pacific open yesterday by +0.31%. AIG services index released minutes ago showed better than previous data at 48.8 vs 43.5. Key data ahead comes in the form of AU retail sales at 01:30 GMT. US markets will be close for the day on holidays.

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at Fxstreet.com: “the overall stance for the pair is bullish despite the hourly chart lacks upward momentum at the time being. In the 4 hours chart indicators hold in extreme overbought levels, with momentum aiming slightly lower, yet price holding near the highs, denying short term chances of a slide,” Valeria says, adding: “Main target for the pair is the 1.0360 area, 61.8% retracement of this year slide.”

Support levels show at: 1.0250 1.0220, and 1.0180, while resistance levels come at: 1.0290 1.0315, and 1.0360.

Australia: AiG Performance of Services Index (Jun): 48.8

Australia: AiG Performance of Services Index (Jun): 48.8

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Forex Flash: ECB to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 0.50%

Forex Flash: ECB to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 0.50%

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Forex Flash: EUR/USD medium term shorts to 1.2290

Forex Flash: EUR/USD medium term shorts to 1.2290

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Forex Flash: EUR/USD medium term shorts to 1.2290 - RBS

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Euro is recovering ground today's session against the Dollar after yesterday's retracement from the 1.2680 zone. Currently the pair is pricing at 1.2605, 0.22% increases so far today.

"Still the EUR looks heavy vs. pretty much everything! Vs. the USD and NZD particularly in the short term," comments William Moore, Technical Strategy at RBS. "Medium term shorts to 1.2290 onto 1.1881 which is the 2008 low stop through 1.2775."

"The market has not yet done enough to rid itself of the bearish flag pattern that points to another visit down to the previous 2008 low s at 1.1881. The near term resistance is just above price action here; the 1.2670 level, Friday’s high at 1.2691 and then the cluster of highs from mid June at 1.2747," concluded the RBS's analyst.

AUD/USD tests 1.0290

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AUD/USD tests 1.0290

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After trading sideways during the European session, the AUD/USD is going bullish in the American morning with the pair breaking up the 1.0280 resistance and reaching 2-month high at 1.0290 inside a 50 pips bullish movement.

Currently the AUD/USD is pricing at 1.0288, 0.40% above today's opening price action. Pair looks "Slightly Bullish" and "Extremely Oversold" according to the FXstreet.com technical studies.

A break above 1.0301 (Upper Bollinger) would bring 1.0355 (high May 2) then 1.0370 (61.8% of 1.0857-0.9581) and 1.0406 (low Apr.30). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.0126 (high Jun.28) followed by 1.0118 (MA10d) then 1.0037 and 1.0018 (MA21d).

GBP/USD fails to sustain above 1.5700

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GBP/USD fails to sustain above 1.5700

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The cable remains confined to a limited range on Tuesday, as it failed once again to extend gains past the 1.5710 level during the New York session.

GBP/USD bounced from the 1.5655/60 zone and climbed back above 1.5700 amid improved sentiment, but lacked upward momentum and pulled back. At time of writing, the cross is quoting at the 1.5690/95 area, little changed since opening.

From a technical view, "The near-term price action remains congested at 1.5700 zone, as yesterday's spike higher failed to regain 1.5732/49 barriers. Hourly studies are losing traction, with initial support at 1.5650/40, coming under pressure", said Slobodan Drvenica, analyst at Windsor Brokers Ltd.

"However, overall picture still keeps positive tone, but failure to clear 200 day MA at 1.5749 and 20 June peak at 1.5776, may result in fresh weakness that will be confirmed on a break below 1.5600 handle", he added.

USD/CAD at 7-week lows

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USD/CAD at 7-week lows

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Loonie strengthened on Tuesday and dragged USD/CAD to a 7-week low, underpinned by better risk appetite and a sharp rise in oil prices. Crude oil gained over 4% amid speculation sanctions against Iran will curb supply.

USD/CAD fell to its lowest since May 17 at 1.0120, but failed to break decisively below that level where the 50% retracement of the 0.9798/1.0444 rally and the 200-day SMA converge. At time of writing, USD/CAD is quoting at the 1.0125 area, recording a 0.4% loss on the day.

In terms of technical levels, below 1.0120 next supports are seen at 1.0100, and the 1.0045/50 area (61.8% retracement and 100-hour SMA). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.0150, 1.0170 and 1.0200.

Wall Street closes higher led by energy sector

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Wall Street closes higher led by energy sector

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - US stocks closed higher in a shortened session Tuesday ahead of the Independence Day holiday, as oil gains boosted energy shares and US factory orders rose more than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 72 points, or 0.56%, at 12,943. The SP 500 Index gained 8 points, or 0.62%, to close at 1,374. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 24 points, or 0.84%, to close at 2,976.

Energy and materials stocks led the rise on higher oil and gold prices. Gold gained 1.5% to $1,622 an ounce, while crude-oil futures rose 4.4% to $87.50 a barrel as Iran tensions kept focus in the supply.

In the macroeconomic domain, US factory orders increased 0.7% in May, much more than the 0.1% rise expected and well above the 0.7% drop registered in April.

CHF/JPY Signal- July 3, 2012

CHF/JPY Signal- July 3, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: CHF/JPY
Trend Expected Direction: Up
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: CHF/JPY found support at the 83 level and turned north. The pair trading above the kumo (clouds) on 4H30M charts. We also have a bullish Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen cross. Once the price hits 84.00, you may move stop-loss to the entry point.
Recommendation: Long
Target Area: 84.00 84.50
Stop-Loss: 83.10

USD/CAD Signal- July 3, 2012

USD/CAD Signal- July 3, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: USD/CAD
Trend Expected Direction: Down
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: USD/CAD has been struggling to break 1.0200 level. The daily and 4H charts shows that the pair will continue its bearish sentiment. The pair is trading below the kumo (clouds). Once the price hits 1.0120, you may move stop-loss to the entry point.
Recommendation: Short
Target Area: 1.0120 1.0075
Stop-Loss: 1.0205

USD/JPY Signal- July 3, 2012

USD/JPY Signal- July 3, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: USD/JPY
Trend Expected Direction: Flat
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: USD/JPY has been trading in an ascending channel since beginning of June. The pair bounced off of the lower band and now is heading north according to 4H30M charts.
Recommendation: Long
Target Area: 80.60
Stop-Loss: 79.35

XAU/USD Signal- July 3, 2012

XAU/USD Signal- July 3, 2012

By: DailyForex.com

Currency: XAU/USD
Trend Expected Direction: Flat
Method: Ichimoku, Technical Analysis
Description: XAU/USD is finally trading above 1600 level. XAU/USD is trading above the kumo (clouds) on 4H30M charts. We also have a bullish Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen cross.
Recommendation: Long
Target Area: 1618.80
Stop-Loss: 1593

AUD/NZD Set to Resume Bearish Trend

AUD/NZD Set to Resume Bearish Trend

By: DailyForex.com

The RBA left the interest/cash rates unchanged at 3.5 %, a move most investors were expecting and at time of writing has only caused a minor drop in the Aussie Dollar against other currencies like the Greenback and the Kiwi. However, the NZD has been climbing in value against its counterparts such as the Euro, AUD and USD for some time now. One of the best example of the strengthening Kiwi is the EUR/NZD chart which has shown the NZD to be gaining value against the EURO quite steadily since January 2009. The AUD/NZD has been much more volatile however, with larger swings both up as well as down thanks to the Aussie Dollar's fluctuations for the most part. Last week, prices on the AUD/NZD hit the 50% retracement level of the most recent Bullish trend that started in mid-April and ended on May 18, 2012. The pair reacted to this key level of resistance by falling for the next 2 days and has now closed below the Weekly Pivot at 1.2754. Adding to the Bearish indications are the 62EMA sitting above at roughly the same level as the Monthly Pivot as well as the 5 13 period EMA's beginning to curl downward once again after pinching together as a result of the pull back. Unless price can close above 1.2800, it is highly probable that prices will continue to improve for the Kiwi, sending the AUD/NZD chart lower, possibly to retest the April low at 1.2519. Along the way there will be support at 1.2690, 1.2656, 1.2613 and 1.2552. If price reverses at this point and begins heading higher, look for resistance at key levels such as 1.2833, 1.2894 1.2928.

Happy Trading

Forex Flash: Business as usual in Athens – Deutsche Bank

Forex Flash: Business as usual in Athens â€" Deutsche Bank

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Forex Flash: Business as usual in Athens Deutsche Bank

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In Greece, the Kathimerini noted that the Troika will meet with Greek government officials today with top-ranking envoys due to arrive on Thursday. That being said, the actual negotiations on possible changes to the Greek bailout terms are not expected to begin until the 24th of July.

There will be pressure for the negotiations to conclude without delay given that an ECB-held Greek government bond auction worth EU3.2bn is due on the 20th August. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “There are some eurozone member states that are reluctant to release further aid to Greece before the negotiations have been concluded, as it seems likely talks will not be held with the Troika unless Greece benefits from last week's EU deal.”

Forex Flash: QE3 and ECB rate cut leaving EUR/USD at 1.2525/1.2680

Forex Flash: QE3 and ECB rate cut leaving EUR/USD at 1.2525/1.2680

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Forex Flash: Sentiment steady ahead of ECB decision Thursday – UBS

Forex Flash: Sentiment steady ahead of ECB decision Thursday â€" UBS

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Forex Flash: Sentiment steady ahead of ECB decision Thursday UBS

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.5% overnight in line with consensus, noting that "material easing" had already been delivered by earlier cuts. Meanwhile, Ireland announced that it has returned to the primary market for the first time since September 2010, which is a symbolic step in efforts to contain the Eurozone crisis.

Nevertheless, the focus within markets has clearly shifted towards growth and the potential policy response from both governments and central banks. Clearly this week the emphasis is on the latter with the ECB and BoE making key decisions. According to Geoffrey Yu, a research analyst at UBS, “The ECB is under pressure to react to worsening output and employment numbers, however the central bank would not want to be seen as rewarding government actions, since last week's decision really delivered little of substance.”

GBP/USD finds support at 1.5670

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GBP/USD finds support at 1.5670

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Cable continues to trade inside a limited range on Tuesday, unable to set fresh direction ahead of key events this week. GBP/USD failed to break decisively above 1.5710 during the European session and slid to a low of 1.5669 following a string of mixed UK data.

However, the pair found support at the 1.5670 are and recently bounced back toward the 1.5685/90 zone, where it is trading at time of writing, virtually unchanged since opening.

"The first levels of supply are located at 1.5663 (18th June 19th June bottom), 1.5566(Multiple June bottoms), 1.5488 (double touch on 12th June), 1.5405 (8th June low), 1.5374 (6th June low), 1.5321 (5th June low), then 1.5268 (13th Jan low)", says the Swissquote Bank SA team.

"If the GBP bulls manage to impose themselves, the next resistance levels could be found at 1.5785 (23rd May high), 1.5852 (22nd May hi gh), 1.5954 1st Mar pivot high), 1.6066 (support turned resistance), 1.6207 (4th May high), 1.6302 (30th May high), 1.6335 ( 31st Aug 11' high), 1.6455 (29th Aug 11' high)", they add.

USD/CAD bounces from 1.0140 ahead of NY session

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USD/CAD bounces from 1.0140 ahead of NY session

FITITOL--> FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following yesterday’s shy corrective movement in consolidation, the USD/CAD is back in decline after Friday’s plunge. The pair is currently bouncing from the daily low, 1.0140, printed during the European session as the NY session opens ahead.

Yesterday’s contracting ISM manufacturing PMI in the US opens doors to further QE. Iranian tensions are also strengthening oil prices. Brent crude was caped at $100. WTI crude oil is currently at 87.75.

Mataf.net analysts point to resistances at 1.0155, 1.0170 and 1.0205. On the downside, supports might be found at 1.0140, 1.0130 and 1.0105.

Easing Hopes Grow as Euro Struggles

Easing Hopes Grow as Euro Struggles

By: DailyForex.com

Both the U.S. Dollar and the Euro slipped in Asian trade as dismal economic data raised investors’ expectations of a more accommodative stance from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In the Eurozone, Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate rose to 11.1% from 11.0%, in line with expectations but still a new record. It was also reported that factory activity remains well below the 50.0 threshold though across the board the results were slightly better than analysts’ expectations.

As reported at 10:47 a.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the EUR/USD pair was lower at 1.2586, slipping from recent highs and just nearing resistance which is pegged at 1.2700. The Euro was also lower against the safe haven Japanese Yen, trading at 100.26 Yen, well off the recent high coming in the wake of post E.U. Summit euphoria when the pair struck 101.00 Yen. The greenback was also lower against the Yen, trading at 79.65 Yen and off the high of 79.98 Yen struck on Monday.

Investors expect that the European Central bank will lower its benchmark rate to 0.75%, a 25 basis points drop, when it meets on Thursday. Expectations are also high that the Fed will announce QE3 when it meets at the end of the month.

UK Banking Scandal Widens

UK Banking Scandal Widens

By: DailyForex.com

Last week, Barclays Bank was fined a record £290 million by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK for attempting to manipulate the Libor and Euribor rates that banks lend to each other at. Whilst the FSA found evidence that Barclays had under reported the rates it was making loans at to give the impression that the bank was in better financial health than it was, there is no way that a single “rogue” bank could induce enough of a change in the rates to give its staff a financial advantage since the rates are based on average lending rates from a basket of leading financial institutions. Indeed, RBS has announced that four staff members have been dismissed for their roles in the scandal and that is likely to be the tip of the iceberg.

The UK banking sector is in the dog house because it has been found guilty of mis-selling billions of pounds worth of payment protection insurance. It has similarly been accused of mis-selling complex hedge funds which were designed to protect small businesses against rising interest rates, but in the event rates fell and customers were left footing substantially larger bills than they would have faced had they done nothing. Add to that public dismay over the financial sector and the remuneration packages that some financiers have benefited from, it was clear that action would be taken.

The government has announced that two enquiries into the scandal will take place. The first of these will consider the narrow issue of the Libor scandal whilst the second will consider the broader question of the banking sector as a full parliamentary inquiry under Andrew Tyrie, MP for Chichester. Confusingly, Mr Tyrie said that the parliamentary inquiry would be a "ring-fenced job" and was not about "trying to work out how to reform the whole banking industry". It would focus on one question "What does the Libor scandal, what does this scandal in the market, where people have made money by rigging the market, say about the standards and the corporate culture of banks?" I think many in Britain can answer that question directly, without need to reference the matter to an expensive parliamentary process.